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Incomplete Information, Higher-Order Beliefs and Price Inertia

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Author Info
George-Marios Angeletos
Jennifer La'O

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Abstract

This paper investigates who incomplete information impacts the response of prices to nominal shocks. Our baseline model is a variant of the Calvo model in which firms observe the underlying nominal shocks with noise. In this model, the response of prices is pinned down by three parameters: the precision of available information about the nominal shock; the frequency of price adjustment; and the degree of strategic complementarity in pricing decisions. This result synthesizes the broader lessons of the pertinent literature. We next highlight that his synthesis provides only a partial view of the role or incomplete information. In general, the precision of information does not pin down the response of higher-order beliefs. Therefore, once cannot quantify the degree of price inertia without additional information about the dynamics of higher-order beliefs, or the agents' forecasts of inflation. We highlight the distinct role of higher-order beliefs with three extensions of our baseline model, all of which break the tight connection between the precision of information and higher-order beliefs featured in previous work.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15003.

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Date of creation: May 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15003

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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  1. Michael Woodford, 2008. "Information-Constrained State-Dependent Pricing," NBER Working Papers 14620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal To Replace The New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
    Other versions:
  4. Nimark, Kristoffer, 2008. "Dynamic pricing and imperfect common knowledge," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 365-382, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Atsushi Kajii & Stephen Morris, 1997. "The Robustness of Equilibria to Incomplete Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1283-1310, November.
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  6. George-Marios Angeletos & Alessandro Pavan, 2007. "Efficient Use of Information and Social Value of Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1103-1142, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jeffery Amato & Hyun Shin, 2006. "Imperfect common knowledge and the information value of prices," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 213-241, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. George-Marios Angeletos & Alessandro Pavan, 2008. "Policy with Dispersed Information," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 86, Collegio Carlo Alberto. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Klenow, Peter J. & Willis, Jonathan L., 2007. "Sticky information and sticky prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(Supplemen), pages 79-99, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Townsend, Robert M, 1983. "Forecasting the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 546-88, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Barton L. Lipman, 2003. "Finite Order Implications of Common Priors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1255-1267, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2006. "Inertia of Forward-Looking Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 152-157, May. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-21.


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