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Imperfect Information, Real‐Time Data and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

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  • Stefano Neri
  • Tiziano Ropele

Abstract

An important concern for the European Central Bank (ECB), and all central banks alike, is the necessity of making decisions in real time under conditions of great uncertainty about the underlying state of the economy. We address this concern by estimating on real-time data a New Keynesian model for the euro area under the assumption of imperfect information. In comparison to models that maintain the assumption of perfect information and are estimated on ex-post revised, we find that: (i) the estimated policy rule becomes more inertial and less aggressive towards inflation; (ii) the ECB is confronted with a more severe trade-off in the stabilization of inflation and the output gap.
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  • Stefano Neri & Tiziano Ropele, 2012. "Imperfect Information, Real‐Time Data and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(561), pages 651-674, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:122:y:2012:i:561:p:651-674
    DOI: j.1468-0297.2011.02488.x
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    3. Jan Capek, 2014. "Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Reaction Functions: Do Real-Time Data Matter?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(6), pages 457-475, December.
    4. Yutaka Kurihara, 2016. "Can the Disparity between GDP and GDP Forecast Cause Economic Instability? The Recent Japanese Case," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 2(8), pages 155-160, 08-2016.
    5. Leonardo Melosi & Eran Yashiv & Renato Faccini, 2016. "Hiring and Investment Frictions as Inflation Determinants," 2016 Meeting Papers 1606, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Lubik, Thomas A. & Matthes, Christian, 2016. "Indeterminacy and learning: An analysis of monetary policy in the Great Inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 85-106.
    7. Neri, Stefano & Ropele, Tiziano, 2019. "Disinflationary shocks and inflation target uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 77-80.
    8. Givens, Gregory E. & Salemi, Michael K., 2015. "Inferring monetary policy objectives with a partially observed state," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 190-208.
    9. Brenneisen, Jan-Niklas, 2020. "Monetary policy under imperfect information and consumer confidence," Economics Working Papers 2020-04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    10. Olmos, Lorena & Sanso Frago, Marcos, 2014. "Natural Rate of Interest with Endogenous Growth, Financial Frictions and Trend Inflation," MPRA Paper 57212, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Martin Slanicay & Jan Čapek & Miroslav Hloušek, 2016. "Some Notes On Problematic Issues In Dsge Models," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 61(210), pages 79-100, July - Se.
    12. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Stephen Wright & Bo Yang, 2019. "Information, VARs and DSGE Models," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1619, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    13. Eran Yashiv & Renato Faccini, 2014. "Inflation Dynamics and Marginal Costs: the Crucial Role of Hiring and Investment Frictions," 2014 Meeting Papers 178, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Alessio Volpicella & Bo Yang, 2022. "The Use and Mis-Use of SVARs for Validating DSGE Models," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0522, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    15. Capek Jan, 2015. "Estimating DSGE model parameters in a small open economy: Do real-time data matter?," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 15(1), pages 89-114, March.
    16. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Stephen Wright & Bo Yang, 2023. "Imperfect Information and Hidden Dynamics," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1223, School of Economics, University of Surrey.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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