The Response of Hours to a Technology Shock: A Two-Step Structural VAR Approach
AbstractThe response of hours to a technology shock is a controversial issue in macroeconomics. Part of the difficulty lies in that the estimated response is sensitive to the specification of hours in structural vector autoregressions (SVARs). This paper uses a simple two-step approach to consistently estimate the response of hours. The first step considers a SVAR model with a relevant stationary variable, but excluding hours. Given a consistent estimate of technology shocks in the first step, the response of hours to this shock is estimated in a second step. Simulation experiments from an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model show that this approach outperforms standard SVARs. When applied to U.S. data, the two-step approach predicts a short-run decrease followed by a hump-shaped positive response. This result is robust to other specifications and data. Copyright (c) 2009 The Ohio State University No claim to original US government works.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
Volume (Year): 41 (2009)
Issue (Month): 5 (08)
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Other versions of this item:
- Patrick Fève & Alain Guay, 2007. "The Response of Hours to a Technology Shock: a Two-Step Structural VAR Approach," Cahiers de recherche 0737, CIRPEE.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
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