VARMA versus VAR for Macroeconomic Forecasting
AbstractIn this paper, we argue that there is no compelling reason for restricting the class of multivariate models considered for macroeconomic forecasting to VARs given the recent advances in VARMA modelling methodology and improvements in computing power. To support this claim, we use real macroeconomic data and show that VARMA models forecast macroeconomic variables more accurately than VAR models.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.
Volume (Year): 26 (2008)
Issue (Month): (April)
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Web page: http://www.amstat.org/publications/jbes/index.cfm?fuseaction=main
Other versions of this item:
- George Athanasopoulos & Farshid Vahid, 2006. "VARMA versus VAR for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Lutkepohl, Helmut & Poskitt, D S, 1996.
"Specification of Echelon-Form VARMA Models,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 69-79, January.
- George Athanasopoulos & Farshid Vahid, 2006.
"A Complete VARMA Modelling Methodology Based on Scalar Components,"
Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers
2/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- George Athanasopoulos & Farshid Vahid, 2008. "A complete VARMA modelling methodology based on scalar components," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 533-554, 05.
- Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele, 2000. "The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 451-476.
- Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D., 1992. "On the Limitations of Comparing Mean Square Forecast Errors," Economics Series Working Papers 99138, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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