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Structural Laplace Transform and Compound Autoregressive Models

Author

Listed:
  • Serge Darolles

    (DRM-Finance - DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Christian Gourieroux

    (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Joann Jasiak

    (Department of Mathematics and Statistics [Toronto] - York University [Toronto])

Abstract

This paper presents a new general class of compound autoregressive (Car) models for non-Gaussian time series. The distinctive feature of the class is that Car models are specified by means of the conditional Laplace transforms. This approach allows for simple derivation of the ergodicity conditions and ensures the existence of forecasting distributions in closed form, at any horizon. The last property is of particular interest for applications to finance and economics that investigate the term structure of variables and/or of their nonlinear transforms. The Car class includes a number of time-series models that already exist in the literature, as well as new models introduced in this paper. Their applications are illustrated by examples of portfolio management, term structure and extreme risk analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Serge Darolles & Christian Gourieroux & Joann Jasiak, 2006. "Structural Laplace Transform and Compound Autoregressive Models," Post-Print halshs-00678240, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00678240
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9892.2006.00479.x
    as

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