An Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts
AbstractWe examine several continuous-time term structure models in which the short rate is subject both to continuous changes and to discrete shifts. Several regime-switching term structure models are developed, with regime-dependence in various combinations of their drift and diffusion parameters. We examine their predictive power. Our empirical analysis suggests that it is important to attempt to specify the switching model correctly: badly parameterized switching models may not be an improvement (in terms of pricing) over models which do not allow for regime switching, even when there are clear breaks in the data.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Royal Economic Society in its series Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 with number 119.
Date of creation: 04 Jun 2003
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Office of the Secretary-General, School of Economics and Finance, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews, Fife, KY16 9AL, UK
Phone: +44 1334 462479
Web page: http://www.res.org.uk/society/annualconf.asp
More information through EDIRC
term structure of interest rates; bond yields; stochastic discount factor/pricing kernel; regime switching;
Other versions of this item:
- Martin Sola & John Driffil & Turalay Kenc, 2003. "An Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 65, Society for Computational Economics.
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Jardet, Caroline & Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio, 2013.
"No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) term structure models, term premia and GDP growth,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 389-402.
- Jardet, C. & Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2009. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth," Working papers 234, Banque de France.
- Caroline JARDET & Alain MONFORT & Fulvio PEGORARO, 2011. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth," Working Papers 2011-03, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2007.
"Switching VARMA Term Structure Models - Extended Version,"
2007-19, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2007. "Switching VARMA Term Structure Models - Extended Version," Working papers 191, Banque de France.
- Christina Erlwein & Rogemar Mamon, 2009. "An online estimation scheme for a Hull–White model with HMM-driven parameters," Statistical Methods and Applications, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 87-107, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.