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Política monetaria y cambios de régimen en los tipos de interés del mercado interbancario español

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Author Info
José Luis Fernández-Serrano (Universidad Europea de Madrid)
M. Dolores Robles Fernández () (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

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Abstract

En este trabajo analizamos el comportamiento dinámico del tipo de interés a un mes del mercado interbancario español entre 1987 y 2001. Se utiliza un proceso de difusión tipo raíz cuadrada que permite que el tipo cambie dependiendo del estado de la economía. El cambio entre regímenes es dirigido por un proceso de Markov de primer orden con probabilidades de transición dependientes del estado. Encontramos dos regímenes claramente diferenciados que podemos relacionar con fenómenos de índole monetario y con el proceso de integración europea. Hay periodos en los que el tipo de interés es extremadamente alto y volátil, y otros caracterizados por tipos de interés bajos poco volátiles que se comportan claramente como un paseo aleatorio. (Copyright: Fundación SEPI)

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Fundación SEPI in its journal Investigaciones Económicas.

Volume (Year): 28 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 349-376
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Handle: RePEc:iec:inveco:v:28:y:2004:i:2:p:349-376

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Postal: Investigaciones Economicas Fundación SEPI Quintana, 2 (planta 3) 28008 Madrid Spain
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Related research
Keywords: Proceso de Markov; tipo de interés a corto plazo; proceso de difusión.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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  2. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. " An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-27, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Dahlquist, Magnus, 1996. "On alternative interest rate processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1093-1119, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Sola, Martin & Driffill, John, 1994. "Testing the term structure of interest rates using a stationary vector autoregression with regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 601-628. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  7. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 2001. "Peso problem explanations for term structure anomalies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 241-270, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Nowman, K Ben, 1998. "Continuous-Time Short Term Interest Rate Models," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 401-07, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Dahlquist, Magnus & Gray, Stephen F., 2000. "Regime-switching and interest rates in the European monetary system," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 399-419, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Erratum: The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 195-98, March-Apr. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. José Luis Fernández Serrano & Mª Dolores Robles Fernández, 2001. "Structural Breaks and interest rates forecast: a sequential approach," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico 0110, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales. [Downloadable!]
  16. Nowman, K B, 1997. " Gaussian Estimation of Single-Factor Continuous Time Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1695-1706, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Short rate nonlinearities and regime switches," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1243-1274, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Garcia, Rene & Perron, Pierre, 1996. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate under Regime Shifts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 111-25, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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