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Affine Models of Currency Pricing

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Author Info
David Backus
Silverio Foresi
Chris Telmer

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Abstract

Perhaps the most puzzling feature of currency prices is the tendency for high interest rate currencies to appreciate, when the expectations hypothesis suggests the reverse. Some have attributed this forward premium anomaly to a time-varying risk premium, but theory has been largely unsuccessful in producing a risk premium with the requisite properties. We characterize the risk premium in a general arbitrage-free setting and describe the features a theory must have to account for the anomaly. In affine models, the anomaly requires either that state variables have asymmetric effects on state prices in different currencies or that we abandon the common requirement that interest rates be strictly positive.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5623.

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Date of creation: Jun 1996
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5623

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1994. "Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 1090, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. David K. Backus & Stanley E. Zin, 1994. "Reverse Engineering the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 4676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1990. "Implications of security market data for models of dynamic economies," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 29, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1995. "Predicting excess returns in financial markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 35-69, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Mark, Nelson C., 1988. "Time-varying betas and risk premia in the pricing of forward foreign exchange contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 335-354, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "The implications of first-order risk aversion for asset market risk premiums," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 3-39, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Amin, Kaushik I. & Jarrow, Robert A., 1991. "Pricing foreign currency options under stochastic interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 310-329, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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