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Towards a Joint Characterization of Monetary Policy and the Dynamics of the Term Structure of Interest Rates Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Fendel, Ralf
The paper develops an empirical no-arbitrage Gaussian affine term structure model to explain the dynamics of the German term structure of interest rates from 1979 through 1998. In contrast to most affine term structure models two risk factors that drive the dynamics are linked to observable macroeconomics factors: output and inflation. The results obtained by a Kalman-filter-based maximum likelihood procedure indicate that the dynamics of the German term structure of interest rates can be sufficiently explained by expected variations in those macroeconomic factors plus an additional unobservable factor. Furthermore, we are able to extract a monetary policy reaction function within this no-arbitrage model of the term structure that closely resembles the empirical reaction functions that are based on the dynamics of the short rate only.
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Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number
2004,24.
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Date of creation: 2004Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:2290Contact details of provider: Postal: Postfach 10 06 02, 60006 Frankfurt Phone: 0 69 / 95 66 - 34 55 Fax: 0 69 / 95 66 30 77 Email: Web page: http://www.bundesbank.de/ More information through EDIRC
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Keywords: affine term structure models monetary policy rules Kalman filter Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
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