A Joint Characterization of German Monetary Policy and the Dynamics of the German Term Structure of Interest Rates
AbstractThe paper develops an empirical no-arbitrage Gaussian affine term structure model to explain the dynamics of the German term structure of interest rates. In contrast to most affine term structure models two risk factors are linked to observable macroeconomics factors: output and inflation. The results indicate that the dynamics of the German term structure of interest rates can be sufficiently explained by expected variations in those macroeconomic factors plus an additional unobservable factor. Furthermore, we are able to extract a monetary policy reaction function within this no-arbitrage model that closely resembles empirical reaction functions that are based on the dynamics of the short rate only.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Review of Applied Economics in its journal Review of Applied Economics.
Volume (Year): 4 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1-2 ()
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Affine term structure models; monetary policy rules; Kalman filter; Financial Economics; E43; E58; G12;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
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