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Computationally attractive stability tests for the efficient method of moments

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Author Info
PIETER J. VAN DER SLUIS

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Abstract

This paper develops structural stability tests based on the Efficient Method of Moments for the case of a known breakpoint. Computationally attractive post-sample estimators and test-statistics for structural stability are proposed, which are modifications of the Lagrange Multiplier, Likelihood Ratio, Wald and Hansen tests for structural stability. The modifications retain the asymptotic optimality properties against certain local alternatives of those based on efficient computationally intensive estimators for the post-sample data. Evaluation of these tests is performed in the context of stochastic volatility models. For these types of models and datasets, readily available structural stability tests are important as these models are used in the pricing of options where the arrival of new data constantly raises the issue of whether the estimates are in need of updating. A Monte Carlo study gives encouraging results for the computationally attractive tests. An application is made to stochastic volatility models for daily returns of the S&P500 index ranging from 1981 to 1993. The tests do not reject the null hypothesis of structural stability for the final model.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Econometrics Journal.

Volume (Year): 1 (1998)
Issue (Month): ConferenceIssue ()
Pages: C203-C227
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Handle: RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:1:y:1998:i:conferenceissue:p:c203-c227

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Related research
Keywords: Efficient Method of Moments; Parameter updates; Stochastic volatility models; Structural stability tests with known breakpoint.;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  3. Fenton, Victor M & Gallant, A Ronald, 1996. "Convergence Rates of SNP Density Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 719-27, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Tauchen, George E. & Harold Zhang & Ming Liu, 1995. "Volume, Volatility and Leverage: A Dynamic Analysis," Working Papers 95-02, Duke University, Department of Economics.
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  11. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1996. "Which Moments to Match?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 657-681, October. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Ming Liu & Harold Zhang, 1996. "Specification Tests in the Efficient Method of Moments Framework with Application to the Stochastic Volatility Models," GSIA Working Papers 34, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business. [Downloadable!]
  21. Nelson, Daniel B & Cao, Charles Q, 1992. "Inequality Constraints in the Univariate GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(2), pages 229-35, April.
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  23. Eric Ghysels & Andrew Harvey & Éric Renault, 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-49, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
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  24. Tim Bollerslev & Robert F. Engle & Daniel B. Nelson, 1993. "ARCH Models," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 93-49, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
    • Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:657-81 is not listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. George J. Jiang & Pieter J. van der Sluis, 1998. "Pricing Stock Options under Stochastic Volatility and Stochastic Interest Rates with Efficient Method of Moments Estimation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-067/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  2. Peter N Smith & Michael R Wickens, . "Asset Pricing with Observable Stochastic Discount Factors," Discussion Papers 02/03, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Carmen Broto & Esther Ruiz, 2002. "Estimation Methods For Stochastic Volatility Models: A Survey," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws025414, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Pieter J. van der Sluis, 1997. "Post-Sample Prediction Tests for the Efficient Method of Moments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-054/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  5. Pieter J. van der Sluis, 1998. "EmmPack 1.01: C/C++ Code for Use with Ox for Estimation of Univariate Stochastic Volatility Models with the Efficient Method of Moments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-021/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  6. Pieter J. van der Sluis, 1998. "Structural Stability Tests with Unknown Breakpoint for the Efficient Method of Moments with Application to Stochastic Volatility Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-055/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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