Extreme market outcomes are often followed by a lack of liquidity and a lack of trade. This market collapse seems particularly acute for derivative markets where traders rely heavily on a specific empirical model. Asset pricing and trading, in these cases, are intrinsically model dependent. Moreover, observed behavior of traders and institutions suggests that attitudes toward ``model uncertainty'' may be qualitatively different than Savage rationality would suggest. For example, a large emphasis is placed on ``worst-case scenarios'' through the pervasive use of ``stress testing'' and ``value-at-risk'' calculations. In this paper we use Knightian uncertainty to describe model uncertainty, and use Choquet-expected-utility preferences to characterize investors aversion to this uncertainty. We show that an increase in model uncertainty can lead to a reduction in liquidity as measured by the bid-ask spread set by a monopoly market maker. In addition, the non-standard nature of hedging model uncertainty can lead to broader portfolio adjustment effects like ``flight to quality'' and ``contagion.''
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Paper provided by Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business in its series GSIA Working Papers with number
2001-E17.
Length: Date of creation: Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:cmu:gsiawp:-1015907483
Contact details of provider: Postal: Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890 Web page: http://www.tepper.cmu.edu/
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Grossman, S.J. & Miller, M.H., 1988.
"Liquidity And Market Structure,"
Papers
88, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
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