Model Uncertainty and Liquidity
AbstractExtreme market outcomes are often followed by a lack of liquidity and a lack of trade. This market collapse seems particularly acute for derivative markets where traders rely heavily on a specific empirical model. Asset pricing and trading, in these cases, are intrinsically model dependent. Moreover, observed behavior of traders and institutions suggests that attitudes toward ``model uncertainty'' may be qualitatively different than Savage rationality would suggest. For example, a large emphasis is placed on ``worst-case scenarios'' through the pervasive use of ``stress testing'' and ``value-at-risk'' calculations. In this paper we use Knightian uncertainty to describe model uncertainty, and use Choquet-expected-utility preferences to characterize investors aversion to this uncertainty. We show that an increase in model uncertainty can lead to a reduction in liquidity as measured by the bid-ask spread set by a monopoly market maker. In addition, the non-standard nature of hedging model uncertainty can lead to broader portfolio adjustment effects like ``flight to quality'' and ``contagion.''
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business in its series GSIA Working Papers with number 2001-E17.
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Postal: Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890
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Other versions of this item:
- Bryan R. Routledge & Stanley E. Zin, 2000. "Model Uncertainty and Liquidity," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1617, Econometric Society.
- Bryan R. Routledge, Stanley E. Zin, 2000. "Model Uncertainity And Liquidity," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 368, Society for Computational Economics.
- Bryan R. Routledge & Stanley E. Zin, 2001. "Model Uncertainty and Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 8683, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2002-04-03 (All new papers)
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