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The Ellsberg Paradox and Risk Aversion: An Anticipated Utility Approach

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Segal, Uzi

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Abstract

The paper describes a decision process under which it is rational to prefer a lottery with known probabilities to a similar ambiguous lottery where the decision maker does not know the exact values of the probabilities (the "Ellsberg paradox"). This is done by modeling ambiguous lotteries as two-stage lotteries, by assuming the independence axiom without the reduction of compound lotteries axiom, and by using the anticipated utility functional. This paper also gives conditions under which less ambiguity is preferred and presents some comparative statics analysis as well as some inter-personal comparisons. Finally, it proves that within the anticipated utility framework, risk and ambiguity are almost identical. Copyright 1987 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

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Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 28 (1987)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 175-202
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Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:28:y:1987:i:1:p:175-202

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Smith, Vernon L, 1969. "Measuring Nonmonetary Utilities in Uncertain Choices: The Ellsberg Urn," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 324-29, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Sherman, Roger, 1974. "The Psychological Difference Between Ambiguity and Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 166-69, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jones, Robert A & Ostroy, Joseph M, 1984. "Flexibility and Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(1), pages 13-32, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Kreps, David M & Porteus, Evan L, 1978. "Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Dynamic Choice Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 185-200, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Schoemaker, Paul J H, 1982. "The Expected Utility Model: Its Variants, Purposes, Evidence and Limitations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 529-63, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Machina, Mark J, 1982. ""Expected Utility" Analysis without the Independence Axiom," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 277-323, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Mossin, Jan, 1969. "A Note on Uncertainty and Preferences in a Temporal Context," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 172-74, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Uzi Segal, 1984. "Nonlinear Decision Weights with the Independence Axiom," UCLA Economics Working Papers 353, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Halevy, Yoram & Ozdenoren, Emre, 2008. "Uncertainty and Compound Lotteries: Calibration," Micro Theory Working Papers yoram_halevy-2008-7, Microeconomics.ca Website, revised 17 Jun 2008. [Downloadable!]
  2. S. Nuri Erbas & Abbas Mirakhor, 2007. "The Equity Premium Puzzle, Ambiguity Aversion, and Institutional Quality," IMF Working Papers 07/230, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Peter Klibanoff & Massimo Marinacci & Sujoy Mukerji, 2006. "Recursive Smooth Ambiguity Preferences," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 17, Collegio Carlo Alberto. [Downloadable!]
  4. Haluk Ergin & Faruk Gul, 2003. "A Subjective Theory of Compound Lotteries," Levine's Bibliography 506439000000000406, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Sujoy Mukerji & Peter Klibanoff, 2002. "A Smooth Model of DecisionMaking Under Ambiguity," Economics Series Working Papers 113, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. S. Nuri Erbas, 2004. "Ambiguity, Transparency, and Institutional Strength," IMF Working Papers 04/115, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Halevy, Yoram & Feltkamp, Vincent, 2004. "A Bayesian Approach to Uncertainty Aversion," Micro Theory Working Papers halevy-04-02-13-07-48-37, Microeconomics.ca Website, revised 08 Jun 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. John D Hey & Gianna Lotito & Anna Maffioletti, 2008. "The Descriptive and Predictive Adequacy of Theories of Decision Making Under Uncertainty/Ambiguity," Discussion Papers 08/04, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
  9. Halevy, Yoram, 2004. "Strotz meets Allais: Diminishing Impatience and the Certainty Effect," Micro Theory Working Papers halevy-04-10-29-10-08-43, Microeconomics.ca Website, revised 19 Jun 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Zvi Safra & Uzi Segal, 2005. "Are Universal Preferences Possible? Calibration Results for Non-Expected Utility Theories," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 633, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Halevy, Yoram, 2005. "Ellsberg Revisited: an Experimental Study," Micro Theory Working Papers halevy-05-07-26-11-51-13, Microeconomics.ca Website, revised 07 Jun 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. TREICH Nicolas, 2008. "The value of a Statistical Life under Ambiguity Aversion," Working Papers 08.05.249, LERNA, University of Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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