We develop a simple approach to valuing stocks in the presence of learning about average profitability. The market-to-book ratio (M/B) increases with uncertainty about average profitability, especially for firms that pay no dividends. M/B is predicted to decline over a firm's lifetime due to learning, with steeper decline when the firm is young. These predictions are confirmed empirically. Data also support the predictions that younger stocks and stocks that pay no dividends have more volatile returns. Firm profitability has become more volatile recently, helping explain the puzzling increase in average idiosyncratic return volatility observed over the past few decades. Copyright (c) 2003 by the American Finance Association.
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Volume (Year): 58 (2003) Issue (Month): 5 (October) Pages: 1749-1790 Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2001.
"The Value Spread,"
NBER Working Papers
8242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2003.
"The Value Spread,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 609-642, 04.
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