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The dividend-price ratio does predict dividend growth: International evidence

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  • Engsted, Tom
  • Pedersen, Thomas Q.

Abstract

Unpredictable dividend growth by the dividend-price ratio is considered a 'stylized fact' in post war US data. Using long-term annual data from the US and three European countries, we revisit this stylized fact, and we also report results on return predictability. We make two main contributions. First, we document that for the US, results for long-horizon predictability are crucially dependent on whether returns and dividend growth are measured in nominal or real terms, and this difference is due to long-term inflation being strongly negatively predictable by the dividend-price ratio. The impact of inflation is to reinforce real return predictability and to reduce - or change direction of - real dividend growth predictability. This provides an explanation for the strong predictability of long-horizon real returns in the 'right' direction, and the strong predictability of long-horizon real dividend growth in the 'wrong' direction, that we see in US post war data. Second, we find that predictability patterns in three European stock markets are in many ways different from what characterize the US stock market. In particular, in Sweden and Denmark dividend growth is strongly predictable by the dividend-price ratio in the 'right' direction while returns are not predictable. The results for the UK are mixed. Our results are robust to a number of changes in the modeling framework. We discuss the results for dividend growth predictability in terms of the 'dividend smoothing hypothesis'.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

Volume (Year): 17 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 585-605

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Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:17:y:2010:i:4:p:585-605

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

Related research

Keywords: Dividend-price ratio Equity return and dividend growth Short- and long-horizon predictability Dividend smoothing VAR model Asymptotic and small-sample tests;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen & Carsten Tanggaard, 2010. "Pitfalls in VAR based return decompositions: A clarification," CREATES Research Papers 2010-09, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  2. Acker, Daniella & Duck, Nigel W., 2013. "Inflation illusion and the US dividend yield: Some further evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 235-254.
  3. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2012. "Return predictability and intertemporal asset allocation: Evidence from a bias-adjusted VAR model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 241-253.
  4. Thomas Nitschka, 2014. "The Good? The Bad? The Ugly? Which news drive (co)variation in Swiss and US bond and stock excess returns?," Working Papers 2014-01, Swiss National Bank.
  5. Jesper Rangvid & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2010. "Dividend predictability around the world," CREATES Research Papers 2010-03, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  6. Guidolin, Massimo & McMillan, David G. & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "Time varying stock return predictability: Evidence from US sectors," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 34-40.
  7. Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2012. "Predicting returns and rent growth in the housing market using the rent-to-price ratio: Evidence from the OECD countries," CREATES Research Papers 2012-58, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.

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