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Measuring and Interpreting Expectations of Equity Returns

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Author Info
Jeff Dominitz
Charles F. Manski

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Abstract

We analyze probabilistic expectations of equity returns elicited in the Survey of Economic Expectations in 1999 %uF8182001 and in the Michigan Survey of Consumers in 2002 %uF8182004. Our empirical findings suggest that individuals use interpersonally variable but intrapersonally stable processes to form their expectations. We therefore propose to think of the population as a mixture of expectations types, each forming expectations in a stable but different way. We use our expectations data to learn about the prevalence of several specific types suggested by research in conventional and behavioral finance, but conclude that these types do not adequately explain the diverse expectations held by the population.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11313.

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Date of creation: May 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11313

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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  1. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-68, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Mayshar, Joram, 1983. "On Divergence of Opinion and Imperfections in Capital Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 114-28, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. J. Dominitz & C. F. Manski, . "Using expectations data to study subjective income expectations," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1050-94, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Nicholas Barberis & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "A Model of Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 5926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. J. Dominitz & C. F. Manski, . "Perceptions of Economic Insecurity: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1105-96, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Rajnish Mehra & Edward C. Prescott, 2003. "The Equity Premium in Retrospect," NBER Working Papers 9525, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey, 2001. "Expectations of Equity Risk Premia, Volatility and Asymmetry from a Corporate Finance Perspective," NBER Working Papers 8678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Daniel Houser & Michael Keane & Kevin McCabe, 2004. "Behavior in a Dynamic Decision Problem: An Analysis of Experimental Evidence Using a Bayesian Type Classification Algorithm," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(3), pages 781-822, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Ivo Welch, 2000. "Views of Financial Economists on the Equity Premium and on Professional Controversies," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm122, Yale School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D, 1995. "Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 831-72, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2004. "How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 51-66, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2003. "How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence (Sentiment)? Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers," NBER Working Papers 9926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Bacchetta, Philippe & Mertens, Elmar & van Wincoop, Eric, 2006. "Predictability in Financial Markets: What Do Survey Expectations Tell Us?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5770, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Pesaran, M.H. & Weale, M., 2005. "Survey Expectations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0536, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2008. "Asymmetries in Inflation Expectation Formation Across Demographic Groups," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0824, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  4. Silvia Balia, 2007. "Reporting expected longevity and smoking: evidence from the SHARE," Working Paper CRENoS 200705, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2005. "Trusting the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 11648, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2007. "Heterogeneity, Asymmetries and Learning in InfIation Expectation Formation: An Empirical Assessment," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 123, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  7. Gene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2005. "From the horse's mouth: gauging conditional expected stock returns from investor surveys," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Gene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2008. "Expectations of risk and return among household investors: Are their Sharpe ratios countercyclical?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Adeline Delavande, 2008. "Measuring revisions to subjective expectations," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 43-82, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Wilbert van der Klaauw & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Simon Potter & Michael Bryan, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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