Measuring and Interpreting Expectations of Equity Returns
AbstractWe analyze probabilistic expectations of equity returns elicited in the Survey of Economic Expectations in 1999 %uF8182001 and in the Michigan Survey of Consumers in 2002 %uF8182004. Our empirical findings suggest that individuals use interpersonally variable but intrapersonally stable processes to form their expectations. We therefore propose to think of the population as a mixture of expectations types, each forming expectations in a stable but different way. We use our expectations data to learn about the prevalence of several specific types suggested by research in conventional and behavioral finance, but conclude that these types do not adequately explain the diverse expectations held by the population.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11313.
Date of creation: May 2005
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- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2011. "Measuring and interpreting expectations of equity returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 352-370, 04.
- G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
- D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
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