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A Skeptical Appraisal of Asset-Pricing Tests

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Author Info
Jonathan Lewellen
Stefan Nagel
Jay Shanken

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Abstract

It has become standard practice in the cross-sectional asset-pricing literature to evaluate models based on how well they explain average returns on size- and B/M-sorted portfolios, something many models seem to do remarkably well. In this paper, we review and critique the empirical methods used in the literature. We argue that asset-pricing tests are often highly misleading, in the sense that apparently strong explanatory power (high cross-sectional R2s and small pricing errors) in fact provides quite weak support for a model. We offer a number of suggestions for improving empirical tests and evidence that several proposed models don%u2019t work as well as originally advertised.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12360.

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Date of creation: Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12360

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G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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Full references

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Stig V. Møller, 2007. "Habit persistence: Explaining cross sectional variation in returns and time-varying expected returns," CREATES Research Papers 2007-07, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  2. Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals : Technical Analysis," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 769, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti, 2008. "The exact distribution of the Hansen-Jagannathan bound," Working Paper 2008-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  4. Tim Bollerslev & Hao Zhou, 2006. "Expected stock returns and variance risk premia," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "Note on The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," NBER Working Papers 13812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2006. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-045, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti & Jay Shanken, 2009. "Pricing model performance and the two-pass cross-sectional regression methodology," Working Paper 2009-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ravi Bansal & Robert Dittmar & Dana Kiku, 2007. "Cointegration and Consumption Risks in Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 13108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hirshleifer, David & Jiang, Danling, 2007. "Commonality in Misvaluation, Equity Financing, and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 16134, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Jul 2009. [Downloadable!]
  10. A. Craig Burnside, 2007. "Empirical Asset Pricing and Statistical Power in the Presence of Weak Risk Factors," NBER Working Papers 13357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Yannick Malevergne & Pedro Santa-Clara & Didier Sornette, 2009. "Professor Zipf goes to Wall Street," NBER Working Papers 15295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti & Jay Shanken, 2009. "Pricing Model Performance and the Two-Pass Cross-Sectional Regression Methodology," NBER Working Papers 15047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Doriana Ruffino & Jonathan Treussard, 2006. "A Study of Inaction in Investment Games via the Early Exercise Premium Representation," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-040, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas & Zijun Wang & Jian Yang, 2006. "Is value premium a proxy for time-varying investment opportunities: some time series evidence," Working Papers 2005-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  15. Møller, Stig Vinther, 2008. "Habit persistence: Explaining cross-sectional variation in returns and time-varying expected returns," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2008-04, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies. [Downloadable!]
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