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Time Variation in the Covariance between Stock Returns and Consumption Growth

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  • GREGORY R. DUFFEE

Abstract

The conditional covariance between aggregate stock returns and aggregate consumption growth varies substantially over time. When stock market wealth is high relative to consumption, both the conditional covariance and correlation are high. This pattern is consistent with the "composition effect," where agents' consumption growth is more closely tied to stock returns when stock wealth is a larger share of total wealth. This variation can be used to test asset-pricing models in which the price of consumption risk varies. After accounting for variations in this price, the relation between expected excess stock returns and the conditional covariance is negative. Copyright 2005 by The American Finance Association.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00777.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 60 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 (08)
Pages: 1673-1712

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:60:y:2005:i:4:p:1673-1712

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