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Macromomentum: Returns Predictability in International Equity Indices

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Author Info

  • Sanjeev Bhojraj

    (Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University)

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    Abstract

    This study examines momentum and reversals in international stock market indices. We find that country stock indices exhibit momentum during the first year after the portfolio formation date and reversals during the subsequent 2 years. Positive currency momentum predicts low stock index returns in the future, thereby weakening momentum and strengthening reversals in U.S. dollar-denominated stock index returns. Cross-sectional regression tests involving individual stock indices confirm the portfolio findings. Our results are consistent with a key prediction of recent behavioral theories, that initial momentum should be accompanied by subsequent reversals.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Business.

    Volume (Year): 79 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 429-451

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    Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:79:y:2006:i:1:p:429-428

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    Web page: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JB/

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    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Momentum Redux
      by quantivity in Quantivity on 2011-06-19 04:14:45
    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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    Cited by:
    1. de Groot, W. & Pang, J. & Swinkels, L.A.P., 2012. "The Cross-Section of Stock Returns in Frontier Emerging Markets," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2012-012-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
    2. Dimitri Vayanos & Paul Woolley, 2008. "An institutional theory of momentum and reversal," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24423, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Rizova, Savina, 2013. "Trade momentum," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 258-293.
    4. Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Ooi, Yao Hua & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2012. "Time series momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 228-250.
    5. Angelidis, Timotheos & Tessaromatis, Nikolaos, 2014. "Global Style Portfolios Based on Country Indices," MPRA Paper 53094, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Fernando F. Ferreira & A. Christian Silva & Ju-Yi Yen, 2014. "Information ratio analysis of momentum strategies," Papers 1402.3030, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2014.
    7. repec:eme:mfipps:v:36:y:2010:i:3:p:508-529 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Laura Andreu & Laurens Swinkels & Liam Tjong-A-Tjoe, 2013. "Can exchange traded funds be used to exploit industry and country momentum?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 127-148, June.
    9. Breloer, Bernhard & Scholz, Hendrik & Wilkens, Marco, 2014. "Performance of international and global equity mutual funds: Do country momentum and sector momentum matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 58-77.
    10. Chan, Justin S.P. & Hong, Dong & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2008. "A tale of two prices: Liquidity and asset prices in multiple markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 947-960, June.
    11. Chiao-Yi Chang, 2013. "Daily momentum profits with firm characteristics and investors’ optimism in the Taiwan market," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 253-273, April.
    12. Oliver D. Bunn & Robert J. Shiller, . "Changing Times, Changing Values: A Historical Analysis of Sectors within the US Stock Market 1872-2013," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1950, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    13. Novy-Marx, Robert, 2012. "Is momentum really momentum?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 429-453.
    14. Thomas Nitschka, 2009. "Momentum in stock market returns, risk premia on foreign currencies and international financial integration," IEW - Working Papers 405, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    15. Karim M. Abadir & Gabriel Talmain, 2012. "Beyond Co-Integration: Modelling Co-Movements in Macro finance," Working Paper Series 25_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    16. Geetesh Bhardwaj & Gary Gorton & K. Rouwenhorst, 2008. "Fooling Some of the People All of the Time: The Inefficient Performance and Persistence of Commodity Trading Advisors," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2429, Yale School of Management.
    17. Kim, Hyeongwoo, 2009. "On the usefulness of the contrarian strategy across national stock markets: A grid bootstrap analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 734-744, December.
    18. Wu, Yuliang & Li, Youwei, 2011. "Long-term return reversals--Value and growth or tax? UK evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 347-368, July.

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