Macromomentum: Returns Predictability in International Equity Indices
Abstract
This study examines momentum and reversals in international stock market indices. We find that country stock indices exhibit momentum during the first year after the portfolio formation date and reversals during the subsequent 2 years. Positive currency momentum predicts low stock index returns in the future, thereby weakening momentum and strengthening reversals in U.S. dollar-denominated stock index returns. Cross-sectional regression tests involving individual stock indices confirm the portfolio findings. Our results are consistent with a key prediction of recent behavioral theories, that initial momentum should be accompanied by subsequent reversals.Download Info
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Bibliographic Info
Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Business.
Volume (Year): 79 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 429-451
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JB/
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Citations
Blog mentions
As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:- Momentum Redux
by quantivity in Quantivity on 2011-06-19 04:14:45
Cited by:
- Chan, Justin S.P. & Hong, Dong & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2008. "A tale of two prices: Liquidity and asset prices in multiple markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 947-960, June.
- Jian Shi & Thomas C. Chiang & Xiaoli Liang, 2012. "Positive-feedback trading activity and momentum profits," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 508-529, May.
- Dimitri Vayanos & Paul Woolley, 2008.
"An Institutional Theory of Momentum and Reversal,"
NBER Working Papers
14523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dimitri Vayanos & Paul Woolley, 2008. "An Institutional Theory of Momentum and Reversal," FMG Discussion Papers dp621, Financial Markets Group.
- Vayanos, Dimitri & Woolley, Paul, 2008. "An Institutional Theory of Momentum and Reversal," CEPR Discussion Papers 7068, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dimitri Vayanos & Paul Woolley, 2011. "An institutional Theory of Momentum and Reversal," FMG Discussion Papers dp666, Financial Markets Group.
- Thomas Nitschka, 2009. "Momentum in stock market returns, risk premia on foreign currencies and international financial integration," IEW - Working Papers 405, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
- Wu, Yuliang & Li, Youwei, 2011. "Long-term return reversals--Value and growth or tax? UK evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 347-368, July.
- Kim, Hyeongwoo, 2009. "On the usefulness of the contrarian strategy across national stock markets: A grid bootstrap analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 734-744, December.
- Karim M. Abadir & Gabriel Talmain, 2012. "Beyond Co-Integration: Modelling Co-Movements in Macro finance," Working Paper Series 25_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
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