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An Institutional Theory of Momentum and Reversal

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  • Dimitri Vayanos

    ()

  • Paul Woolley

    ()

Abstract

We propose a rational theory of momentum and reversal based on delegated portfolio management. A competitive investor can invest through an index fund or an active fund run by a manager with unknown ability. Following a negative cashflow shock to assets held by the active fund, the investor updates negatively about the manager's ability and migrates to the index fund. While prices of assets held by the active fund drop in anticipation of the investor's outflows, the drop is expected to continue, leading to momentum. Because outflows push prices below fundamental values, expected returns eventually rise, leading to reversal. Fund flows generate comovement and lead-lag effects, with predictability being stronger for assets with high idiosyncratic risk. We derive explicit solutions for asset prices, within a continuous-time normal-linear equilibrium.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Financial Markets Group in its series FMG Discussion Papers with number dp621.

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Date of creation: Nov 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp621

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Cited by:
  1. Allen, Franklin & Vayanos, Dimitri & Vives, Xavier, 2014. "Introduction to financial economics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 1-14.
  2. Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2010. "On the Size of the Active Management Industry," NBER Working Papers 15646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. He, Zhiguo & Xiong, Wei, 2013. "Delegated asset management, investment mandates, and capital immobility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 239-258.
  4. Marcin Kacperczyk & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2009. "Rational Attention Allocation Over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 15450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Veronica Guerrieri & Peter Kondor, 2012. "Fund Managers, Career Concerns, and Asset Price Volatility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(5), pages 1986-2017, August.
  6. Steven L. Heston & Robert A. Korajczyk & Ronnie Sadka, 2010. "Intraday Patterns in the Cross-section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1369-1407, 08.
  7. Giovanni Cespa & Xavier Vives, 2009. "Dynamic Trading and Asset Prices: Keynes vs. Hayek," CESifo Working Paper Series 2839, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Jianjun Miao & Rui Albuquerque, 2008. "Advance Information and Asset Prices," 2008 Meeting Papers 44, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Miguel Anton & Christopher Polk, 2010. "Connected stocks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 43098, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  10. Huang, Shiyang & Qiu, Zhigang & Shang, Qi & Tang, Ke, 2013. "Asset pricing with heterogeneous beliefs and relative performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4107-4119.
  11. Vincent Glode & Burton Hollifield & Marcin Kacperczyk & Shimon Kogan, 2009. "Is Investor Rationality Time Varying? Evidence from the Mutual Fund Industry," NBER Working Papers 15038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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