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An Institutional Theory of Momentum and Reversal

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  • Vayanos, Dimitri
  • Woolley, Paul

Abstract

We propose a rational theory of momentum and reversal based on delegated portfolio management. A competitive investor can invest through an index fund or an active fund run by a manager with unknown ability. Following a negative cashflow shock to assets held by the active fund, the investor updates negatively about the manager's ability and migrates to the index fund. While prices of assets held by the active fund drop in anticipation of the investor's outflows, the drop is expected to continue, leading to momentum. Because outflows push prices below fundamental values, expected returns eventually rise, leading to reversal. Fund flows generate comovement and lead-lag effects, with predictability being stronger for assets with high idiosyncratic risk. We derive explicit solutions for asset prices, within a continuous-time normal-linear equilibrium.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7068.

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Date of creation: Dec 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7068

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Keywords: delegated portfolio management; limits to arbitrage; momentum; reversal;

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Cited by:
  1. Miguel Anton & Christopher Polk, 2010. "Connected stocks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 43098, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2010. "On the Size of the Active Management Industry," Working Papers 2010-001, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
  3. Cespa, Giovanni & Vives, Xavier, 2009. "Dynamic Trading and Asset Prices: Keynes vs. Hayek," CEPR Discussion Papers 7506, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Albuquerque, Rui & Miao, Jianjun, 2007. "Advance Information and Asset Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 6588, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Veronica Guerrieri & Péter Kondor, 2009. "Fund Managers, Career Concerns, and Asset Price Volatility," NBER Working Papers 14898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Allen, Franklin & Vayanos, Dimitri & Vives, Xavier, 2014. "Introduction to financial economics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 1-14.
  7. Steven L. Heston & Robert A. Korajczyk & Ronnie Sadka, 2010. "Intraday Patterns in the Cross-section of Stock Returns," Papers 1005.3535, arXiv.org.
  8. Vincent Glode & Burton Hollifield & Marcin Kacperczyk & Shimon Kogan, 2009. "Is Investor Rationality Time Varying? Evidence from the Mutual Fund Industry," NBER Working Papers 15038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Marcin Kacperczyk & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2009. "Rational Attention Allocation Over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 15450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. He, Zhiguo & Xiong, Wei, 2013. "Delegated asset management, investment mandates, and capital immobility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 239-258.
  11. Huang, Shiyang & Qiu, Zhigang & Shang, Qi & Tang, Ke, 2013. "Asset pricing with heterogeneous beliefs and relative performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4107-4119.

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