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An Institutional Theory of Momentum and Reversal

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  • Dimitri Vayanos
  • Paul Woolley

Abstract

We propose a theory of momentum and reversal based on flows between investment funds. Flows are triggered by changes in fund managers' efficiency, which investors either observe directly or infer from past performance. Momentum arises if flows exhibit inertia, and because rational prices underreact to expected future flows. Reversal arises because flows push prices away from fundamental values. Besides momentum and reversal, flows generate comovement, lead-lag effects, and amplification, with these being larger for high idiosyncratic risk assets. A calibration of our model using evidence on mutual fund returns and flows generates sizeable Sharpe ratios for momentum and value strategies. The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com., Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Society for Financial Studies in its journal The Review of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 26 (2013)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 1087-1145

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Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:26:y:2013:i:5:p:1087-1145

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  1. Jianjun Miao & Rui Albuquerque, 2008. "Advance Information and Asset Prices," 2008 Meeting Papers 44, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  4. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, . "Value Versus Growth: The International Evidence," CRSP working papers 449, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  5. Veronica Guerrieri & Péter Kondor, 2009. "Fund Managers, Career Concerns, and Asset Price Volatility," NBER Working Papers 14898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Pástor, Luboš & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2010. "On the Size of the Active Management Industry," CEPR Discussion Papers 7637, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Veronica Guerrieri & Peter Kondor, 2010. "Fund managers, career concerns, and asset price volatility," Staff Report 446, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Albuquerque, Rui & Miao, Jianjun, 2007. "Advance Information and Asset Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 6588, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Vincent Glode & Burton Hollifield & Marcin Kacperczyk & Shimon Kogan, 2009. "Is Investor Rationality Time Varying? Evidence from the Mutual Fund Industry," NBER Working Papers 15038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Giovanni Cespa & Xavier Vives, 2009. "Dynamic Trading and Asset Prices: Keynes vs. Hayek," CESifo Working Paper Series 2839, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Allen, Franklin & Vayanos, Dimitri & Vives, Xavier, 2014. "Introduction to financial economics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 1-14.
  7. Huang, Shiyang & Qiu, Zhigang & Shang, Qi & Tang, Ke, 2013. "Asset pricing with heterogeneous beliefs and relative performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4107-4119.
  8. Steven L. Heston & Robert A. Korajczyk & Ronnie Sadka, 2010. "Intraday Patterns in the Cross-section of Stock Returns," Papers 1005.3535, arXiv.org.
  9. Marcin Kacperczyk & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2009. "Rational Attention Allocation Over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 15450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. He, Zhiguo & Xiong, Wei, 2013. "Delegated asset management, investment mandates, and capital immobility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 239-258.
  11. Miguel Anton & Christopher Polk, 2010. "Connected stocks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 43098, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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