Expectations, Liquidity, and Short-term Trading
AbstractIn a market with short term agents and heterogeneous information, when liquidity trading displays persistence, prices reflect average expectations about fundamentals and liquidity trading. Informed investors exploit a private learning channel to infer the demand of liquidity traders from the order flow to anticipate the evolution of the future aggregate demand for the stock. This yields multiple equilibria which can be ranked in terms of liquidity and informational effciency. Our results have implications for the impact of High Frequency Trading (HFT) on market quality and for the role of average expectations inasset pricing. We show that with persistence HFT can enhance informational efficiency and liquidity -- though creating an unstable equilibrium. In the equilibrium with high (low) informational effciency, prices are closer to (farther away from) fundamentals compared to consensus estimates.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8303.
Date of creation: Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
Other versions of this item:
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-04-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-04-02 (Central Banking)
- NEP-CTA-2011-04-02 (Contract Theory & Applications)
- NEP-MST-2011-04-02 (Market Microstructure)
- NEP-UPT-2011-04-02 (Utility Models & Prospect Theory)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kristoffer Nimark, 2007.
"Dynamic higher order expectations,"
Economics Working Papers
1118, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2011.
- James Dow & Gary Gorton, .
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
6-93, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- James Dow & Gary Gorton, 1993. "Arbitrage Chains," NBER Working Papers 4314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James Dow & Gary Gorton, 1993. "Arbitrage Chains," CEPR Financial Markets Paper 0035, European Science Foundation Network in Financial Markets, c/o C.E.P.R, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.
- James Dow & Gary Gorton, . "Arbitrage Chains," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 06-93, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Grossman, Sanford J & Miller, Merton H, 1988.
" Liquidity and Market Structure,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 617-37, July.
- Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
- Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2008.
"Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 837-866, 08.
- Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing," Working Papers 04.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
- Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2008. "Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 6648, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Philippe BACCHETTA & Eric VAN WINCOOP, 2004. "Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing," FAME Research Paper Series rp110, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
- De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990.
"Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets,"
3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2006. "Beauty Contests and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 719-752.
- David Easley & Robert F. Engle & Maureen O'Hara & Liuren Wu, 2002.
"Time-Varying Arrival Rates of Informed and Uninformed Trades,"
- David Easley & Robert F. Engle & Maureen O'Hara & Liuren Wu, 2008. "Time-Varying Arrival Rates of Informed and Uninformed Trades," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 6(2), pages 171-207, Spring.
- Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2009. "Aggregation of Information and Beliefs: Asset Pricing Lessons from Prediction Markets," Discussion Papers 09-14, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Acharya, Viral V & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2004.
"Asset Pricing with Liquidity Risk,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4718, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Admati, Anat R, 1985. "A Noisy Rational Expectations Equilibrium for Multi-asset Securities Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 629-57, May.
- Giovanni Cespa, 2000.
"Short-term investment and equilibrium multiplicity,"
Economics Working Papers
520, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2002.
- Cespa, Giovanni, 2002. "Short-term investment and equilibrium multiplicity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(9), pages 1645-1670, October.
- De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
- Biais, Bruno & Bossaerts, Peter, 1998. "Asset Prices and Trading Volume in a Beauty Contest," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 307-40, April.
- Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Liquidity and Asset Prices," MPRA Paper 24768, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
- Péter Kondor, 2009. "The more we know, the less we agree: Higher-order expectations and public announcements," 2009 Meeting Papers 1018, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.