IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/8083.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Investors' horizons and the Amplification of Market Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Ellul, Andrew
  • Giannetti, Mariassunta
  • Cella, Cristina

Abstract

After negative shocks, investors with short trading horizons are inclined or forced to sell their holdings to a larger extent than investors with longer trading horizons. This may amplify the effects of market-wide shocks on stock prices. We test the relevance of this mechanism by exploiting the negative shock caused by Lehman Brothers? bankruptcy in September 2008. Consistent with our conjecture, we find that short-term investors sell significantly more than long-term investors around and after the Lehman Brothers? bankruptcy. Most importantly, we show that stocks held by short- term institutional investors experience more severe price drops and larger price reversals than those held by long-term investors. Since they are obtained after controlling for the stocks? exposure to volatility, various firms? and investors? characteristics, including the momentum effect and the propensity of institutional investors to follow an index, our results cannot be explained by characteristics of the institutions? investment styles other than their investment horizons. We also show that the effect of shareholder trading horizon emerges during other large market declines. Overall, the empirical evidence strongly indicates that investors? short horizons amplify the effects of market-wide negative shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ellul, Andrew & Giannetti, Mariassunta & Cella, Cristina, 2010. "Investors' horizons and the Amplification of Market Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 8083, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8083
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP8083
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eitan Goldman & Steve L. Slezak, 2003. "Delegated Portfolio Management and Rational Prolonged Mispricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 283-311, February.
    2. Aragon, George O. & Strahan, Philip E., 2012. "Hedge funds as liquidity providers: Evidence from the Lehman bankruptcy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 570-587.
    3. Derrien, François & Kecskés, Ambrus & Thesmar, David, 2013. "Investor Horizons and Corporate Policies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(6), pages 1755-1780, December.
    4. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    5. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1992. "Liquidation Values and Debt Capacity: A Market Equilibrium Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1343-1366, September.
    6. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2004. "Liquidity Black Holes," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-18.
    7. Chen, Hsiu-Lang & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Wermers, Russ, 2000. "The Value of Active Mutual Fund Management: An Examination of the Stockholdings and Trades of Fund Managers," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 343-368, September.
    8. Ikenberry, David & Lakonishok, Josef & Vermaelen, Theo, 1995. "Market underreaction to open market share repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 181-208.
    9. Russ Wermers, 2000. "Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Decomposition into Stock-Picking Talent, Style, Transactions Costs, and Expenses," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1655-1703, August.
    10. Xuemin (Sterling) Yan & Zhe Zhang, 2009. "Institutional Investors and Equity Returns: Are Short-term Institutions Better Informed?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 893-924, February.
    11. Manconi, Alberto & Massa, Massimo & Yasuda, Ayako, 2012. "The role of institutional investors in propagating the crisis of 2007–2008," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 491-518.
    12. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2005. "Predatory Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1825-1863, August.
    13. Grossman, Sanford J & Miller, Merton H, 1988. " Liquidity and Market Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 617-637, July.
    14. Russ Wermers, 2000. "Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Decomposition into Stock‐Picking Talent, Style, Transactions Costs, and Expenses," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1655-1695, August.
    15. Gaspar, Jose-Miguel & Massa, Massimo & Matos, Pedro, 2005. "Shareholder investment horizons and the market for corporate control," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 135-165, April.
    16. Mariassunta Giannetti & Luc Laeven, 2009. "Pension Reform, Ownership Structure, and Corporate Governance: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(10), pages 4091-4127, October.
    17. Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2004. "Liquidity and Financial Market Runs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 135-158.
    18. Ben-David, Itzhak & Franzoni, Francesco & Moussawi, Rabih, 2010. "The Behavior of Hedge Funds during Liquidity Crises," Working Paper Series 2010-2, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    19. Jeremy C. Stein, 1989. "Efficient Capital Markets, Inefficient Firms: A Model of Myopic Corporate Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 655-669.
    20. Campbell, John Y, 1996. "Understanding Risk and Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 298-345, April.
    21. K. J. Martijn Cremers & Antti Petajisto, 2009. "How Active Is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3329-3365, September.
    22. Ellul, Andrew & Jotikasthira, Chotibhak & Lundblad, Christian T., 2011. "Regulatory pressure and fire sales in the corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 596-620, September.
    23. Darrell Duffie & Bruno Strulovici, 2012. "Capital Mobility and Asset Pricing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2469-2509, November.
    24. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    25. Chevalier, Judith & Ellison, Glenn, 1997. "Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1167-1200, December.
    26. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    27. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    28. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, April.
    29. Gordon J. Alexander & Gjergji Cici & Scott Gibson, 2007. "Does Motivation Matter When Assessing Trade Performance? An Analysis of Mutual Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 125-150, January.
    30. Martijn Cremers & Antti Petajisto, 2006. "How Active is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2370, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2009.
    31. Lasse Heje Pedersen & Mark Mitchell & Todd Pulvino, 2007. "Slow Moving Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 215-220, May.
    32. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel, 2004. "Hedge Funds and the Technology Bubble," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(5), pages 2013-2040, October.
    33. Alon Brav & Wei Jiang & Frank Partnoy & Randall Thomas, 2008. "Hedge Fund Activism, Corporate Governance, and Firm Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1729-1775, August.
    34. Coval, Joshua & Stafford, Erik, 2007. "Asset fire sales (and purchases) in equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 479-512, November.
    35. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan & Wermers, Russ, 1995. "Momentum Investment Strategies, Portfolio Performance, and Herding: A Study of Mutual Fund Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
    36. Martijn Cremers & Antti Petajisto, 2006. "How Active is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2370, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2009.
    37. Mark Mitchell & Todd Pulvino & Erik Stafford, 2004. "Price Pressure around Mergers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(1), pages 31-63, February.
    38. Manconi, Alberto & Massa, Massimo & Yasuda, Ayako, 2010. "The Behavior of Intoxicated Investors: The Role of Institutional Investors in Propagating the Crisis of 2007-2008," Working Papers 10-22, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    39. Martijn Cremers & Ankur Pareek, 2009. "Institutional Investors’ Investment Durations and Stock Return Anomalies: Momentum, Reversal, Accruals, Share Issuance and R&D Increases," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2662, Yale School of Management, revised 04 Sep 2009.
    40. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    41. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    42. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-1181, September.
    43. Froot, Kenneth A & Scharftstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1992. "Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short-Term Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1461-1484, September.
    44. Brian J. Bushee, 2001. "Do Institutional Investors Prefer Near†Term Earnings over Long†Run Value?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(2), pages 207-246, June.
    45. Allaudeen Hameed & Wenjin Kang & S. Viswanathan, 2010. "Stock Market Declines and Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 257-293, February.
    46. Karolyi, G. Andrew & Lee, Kuan-Hui & van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2012. "Understanding commonality in liquidity around the world," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 82-112.
    47. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, February.
    48. Isabelle Huault & V. Perret & S. Charreire-Petit, 2007. "Management," Post-Print halshs-00337676, HAL.
    49. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    50. Chen, Xia & Harford, Jarrad & Li, Kai, 2007. "Monitoring: Which institutions matter?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 279-305, November.
    51. Nicole Boyson & Jean Helwege & Jan Jindra, 2014. "Crises, Liquidity Shocks, and Fire Sales at Commercial Banks," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 43(4), pages 857-884, December.
    52. Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007. "Liquidity and Risk Management," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 193-197, May.
    53. Bushee, BJ & Noe, CF, 2000. "Corporate disclosure practices, institutional investors, and stock return volatility," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38, pages 171-202.
    54. Todd C. Pulvino, 1998. "Do Asset Fire Sales Exist? An Empirical Investigation of Commercial Aircraft Transactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(3), pages 939-978, June.
    55. John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Parag Pathak, 2011. "Forced Sales and House Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2108-2131, August.
    56. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    57. Edith S. Hotchkiss & Deon Strickland, 2003. "Does Shareholder Composition Matter? Evidence from the Market Reaction to Corporate Earnings Announcements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1469-1498, August.
    58. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. "Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 579-590, July.
    59. Lundblad, Christian T & Jotikasthira, Chotibhak, 2009. "Asset fire sales and purchases and the international transmission of financial shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7595, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    60. Alberto Manconi & Massimo Massa & Ayako Yasuda, 2010. "The Behavior of Intoxicated Investors: The role of institutional investors in propagating the crisis of 2007-2008," NBER Working Papers 16191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    61. Jeremy C. Stein, 2005. "Why are Most Funds Open-End? Competition and the Limits of Arbitrage," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 247-272.
    62. Darrell Duffie, 2010. "Presidential Address: Asset Price Dynamics with Slow‐Moving Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1237-1267, August.
    63. Jeffery S. Abarbanell & Brian J. Bushee & Jana Smith Raedy, 2003. "Institutional Investor Preferences and Price Pressure: The Case of Corporate Spin-Offs," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(2), pages 233-262, April.
    64. Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2006. "Beauty Contests and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 719-752.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chang, Xiaochen & Guo, Songlin & Huang, Junkai, 2022. "Kidnapped mutual funds: Irrational preference of naive investors and fund incentive distortion," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Lan, Chunhua & Moneta, Fabio & Wermers, Russ, 2018. "Holding Horizon: A New Measure of Active Investment Management," CFR Working Papers 15-06, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR), revised 2018.
    3. Jiang, Hao & Verardo, Michela, 2013. "Does herding behavior reveal skill? An analysis of mutual fund performance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119034, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Mikhail Simutin, 2014. "Cash Holdings and Mutual Fund Performance," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1425-1464.
    5. Bali, Turan G. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Wen, Quan, 2021. "Long-term reversals in the corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 656-677.
    6. Itzhak Ben-DAVID & Francesco A. FRANZONI & Rabih MOUSSAWI & John SEDUNOV III, 2015. "The Granular Nature of Large Institutional Investors," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 15-67, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Apr 2016.
    7. Miguel Antón & Christopher Polk, 2014. "Connected Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(3), pages 1099-1127, June.
    8. Dang, Tung Lam & Moshirian, Fariborz & Zhang, Bohui, 2019. "Liquidity shocks and institutional investors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 184-209.
    9. Mohammad (Vahid) Irani & Hugh Hoikwang Kim, 2023. "The consequences of non‐trading institutional investors," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 52(3), pages 433-481, September.
    10. Coval, Joshua & Stafford, Erik, 2007. "Asset fire sales (and purchases) in equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 479-512, November.
    11. Kim, Donghan & Kim, Hyun-Dong & Joe, Denis Yongmin & Oh, Ji Yeol Jimmy, 2021. "Institutional investor heterogeneity and market price dynamics: Evidence from investment horizon and portfolio concentration," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    12. Hao Jiang & Michela Verardo, "undated". "Does herding behavior reveal skill? An analysis of mutual fund performance," FMG Discussion Papers dp720, Financial Markets Group.
    13. Lasse Pedersen, 2009. "When Everyone Runs for the Exit," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(4), pages 177-199, December.
    14. Bessler, Wolfgang & Blake, David & Lückoff, Peter & Tonks, Ian, 2010. "Why does mutual fund performance not persist? The impact and interaction of fund flows and manager changes," MPRA Paper 34185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Fulkerson, Jon A. & Riley, Timothy B., 2019. "Portfolio concentration and mutual fund performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-16.
    16. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    17. Ben-Rephael, Azi, 2017. "Flight-to-liquidity, market uncertainty, and the actions of mutual fund investors," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 30-44.
    18. Agarwal, Vikas & Mullally, Kevin & Tang, Yuehua & Yang, Baozhong, 2013. "Mandatory portfolio disclosure, stock liquidity, and mutual fund performance," CFR Working Papers 13-04, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    19. Ruenzi, Stefan & Ungeheuer, Michael & Weigert, Florian, 2020. "Joint Extreme events in equity returns and liquidity and their cross-sectional pricing implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    20. Woon Sau Leung & Nicholas Taylor, 2013. "Testing for contagion: the impact of US structured markets on international financial markets," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 11, pages 256-284, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fire sales; Institutional investors; Investor horizon; Market crashes; Financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8083. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.