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Investors' horizons and the Amplification of Market Shocks

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  • Cella, Cristina
  • Ellul, Andrew
  • Giannetti, Mariassunta

Abstract

After negative shocks, investors with short trading horizons are inclined or forced to sell their holdings to a larger extent than investors with longer trading horizons. This may amplify the effects of market-wide shocks on stock prices. We test the relevance of this mechanism by exploiting the negative shock caused by Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy in September 2008. Consistent with our conjecture, we find that short-term investors sell significantly more than long-term investors around and after the Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy. Most importantly, we show that stocks held by short- term institutional investors experience more severe price drops and larger price reversals than those held by long-term investors. Since they are obtained after controlling for the stocks’ exposure to volatility, various firms’ and investors’ characteristics, including the momentum effect and the propensity of institutional investors to follow an index, our results cannot be explained by characteristics of the institutions’ investment styles other than their investment horizons. We also show that the effect of shareholder trading horizon emerges during other large market declines. Overall, the empirical evidence strongly indicates that investors’ short horizons amplify the effects of market-wide negative shocks.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8083.

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Date of creation: Oct 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8083

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Keywords: financial crisis; fire sales; institutional investors; investor horizon; market crashes;

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Cited by:
  1. Airaudo, Marco & Cardani, Roberta & Lansing, Kevin J., 2013. "Monetary policy and asset prices with belief-driven fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1453-1478.
  2. Beber, Alessandro & Driessen, Joost & Tuijp, Patrick, 2011. "Pricing Liquidity Risk with Heterogeneous Investment Horizons," CEPR Discussion Papers 8710, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Charles W. Calomiris & Inessa Love & Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, 2010. "Crisis “Shock Factors” and the Cross-Section of Global Equity Returns," NBER Working Papers 16559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Bruno Maria Parigi & Loriana Pelizzon & Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 2013. "Stock Market Returns, Corporate Governance and Capital Market Equilibrium," CESifo Working Paper Series 4496, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Ben-David, Itzhak & Franzoni, Francesco & Moussawi, Rabih, 2011. "ETFs, Arbitrage, and Contagion," Working Paper Series 2011-20, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  6. Calomiris, Charles W. & Love, Inessa & Martínez Pería, María Soledad, 2012. "Stock returns’ sensitivities to crisis shocks: Evidence from developed and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 743-765.
  7. Stavros Peristiani & Vanessa Savino, 2011. "Are credit default swaps associated with higher corporate defaults?," Staff Reports 494, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  8. Airaudo, Marco & Nisticò, Salvatore & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2012. "Learning, Monetary Policy and Asset Prices," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2012-12, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.

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