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Learning from Prices and the Dispersion in Beliefs

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  • Snehal Banerjee
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    Abstract

    The article develops a dynamic model that nests the rational expectations (RE) and differences of opinion (DO) approaches to study how investors use prices to update their valuations. When investors condition on prices (RE), investor disagreement is related positively to expected returns, return volatility, and market beta, but negatively to return autocorrelation. When investors do not use prices (DO), these relations are reversed. Tests of these predictions on the cross-section of stocks using analyst forecast dispersion and volume as proxies for disagreement provide empirical evidence that is consistent with investors using prices on average. The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com., Oxford University Press.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Society for Financial Studies in its journal Review of Financial Studies.

    Volume (Year): 24 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 9 ()
    Pages: 3025-3068

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    Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:24:y:2011:i:9:p:3025-3068

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    Cited by:
    1. Hoffmann, Arvid O.I. & Post, Thomas & Pennings, Joost M.E., 2013. "Individual investor perceptions and behavior during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 60-74.
    2. Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2014. "Dynamic Dispersed Information and the Credit Spread Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 19788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Alp Simsek, 2012. "Speculation and Risk Sharing with New Financial Assets," 2012 Meeting Papers 71, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Bruce I. Carlin & Francis A. Longstaff & Kyle Matoba, 2012. "Disagreement and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 18619, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Wei Xiong, 2013. "Bubbles, Crises, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 18905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Elías Albagli, 2013. "Investment Horizons and Asset Prices under Asymmetric Information," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 709, Central Bank of Chile.

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