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Learning, Asset-Pricing Tests, and Market Efficiency

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Author Info
Jonathan Lewellen (MIT Sloan School of Management,)
Jay Shanken (Simon Graduate School of Business Administration at the University of Rochester, and NBER)

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Abstract

This paper studies the asset-pricing implications of parameter uncertainty. We show that, when investors must learn about expected cash flows, empirical tests can find patterns in the data that differ from those perceived by rational investors. Returns might appear predictable to an econometrician, or appear to deviate from the Capital Asset Pricing Model, but investors can neither perceive nor exploit this predictability. Returns may also appear excessively volatile even though prices react efficiently to cash-flow news. We conclude that parameter uncertainty can be important for characterizing and testing market efficiency. Copyright The American Finance Association 2002.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 57 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (06)
Pages: 1113-1145
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:57:y:2002:i:3:p:1113-1145

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  1. Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2002. "Stock Valuation and Learning about Profitability," NBER Working Papers 8991, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Jonathan B. Berk & Ian Tonks, 2007. "Return Persistence and Fund Flows in the Worst Performing Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 13042, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Xue-Zhong He & Youwei Li, 2005. "Long Memory, Heterogeneity and Trend Chasing," Research Paper Series 148, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
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  4. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2003. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," NBER Working Papers 9509, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes," Working Papers 2005-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Tobias Adrian & Francesco Franzoni, 2008. "Learning about beta: time-varying factor loadings, expected returns, and the conditional CAPM," Staff Reports 193, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Larry Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2005. "Ambiguity, Information Quality and Asset Pricing," RCER Working Papers 519, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Tobias Adrian, 2004. "Inference, arbitrage, and asset price volatility," Staff Reports 187, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Amit Goval & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," NBER Working Papers 10483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Larry Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2002. "Learning Under Ambiguity," RCER Working Papers 497, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER), revised Mar 2005. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Paul Söderlind, 2006. "C-CAPM without Ex Post Data," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2006 2006-22, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Jay Shanken & Ane Tamayo, 2001. "Risk, Mispricing, and Asset Allocation: Conditioning on Dividend Yield," NBER Working Papers 8666, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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