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An update on Bayesian updating

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Author Info

  • Holt, Charles A.
  • Smith, Angela M.

Abstract

This paper reports an experiment in which subjects are asked to assess probabilities for unknown events, with treatments that vary the extremity of the prior information. Probabilities are elicited using a Becker-DeGroot-Marshak procedure that does not depend on assumptions about risk aversion. The focus is on the pattern of biases in information processing.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V8F-4TGS79B-2/2/8b9a680747d300006f885bd5e6f3f03f
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.

Volume (Year): 69 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
Pages: 125-134

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:69:y:2009:i:2:p:125-134

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo

Related research

Keywords: Laboratory experiments Baye's rule Probability weighting;

References

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Jacob Goeree & Thomas Palfrey & Brian Rogers, 2004. "Self-Correcting Information Cascades," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000153, UCLA Department of Economics.
  2. George Wu & Richard Gonzalez, 1996. "Curvature of the Probability Weighting Function," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(12), pages 1676-1690, December.
  3. Grether, David M., . "Recent Psychological Studies of Behavior Under Uncertainty," Working Papers 82, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  4. Offerman, T.J.S. & Sonnemans, J., 1997. "What's Causing Overreaction? An Experimental Investigation of Recency and the Hot Hand Effect," Discussion Paper 1997-36, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  5. Grether, David M., 1990. "Testing Bayes Rule and the Representativeness Heuristic: Some Experimental Evidence," Working Papers 724, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  6. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1644-1655, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Amalia Di Girolamo & Glenn W. Harrison & Morten I. Lau & J. Todd Swarthout, 2013. "Characterizing Financial and Statistical Literacy," Experimental Economics Center Working Paper Series 2013-04, Experimental Economics Center, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
  2. Glenn W. Harrison & Jimmy Martínez-Correa & J. Todd Swarthout & Eric R. Ulm, 2013. "Scoring Rules for Subjective Probability Distributions," Experimental Economics Center Working Paper Series 2013-05, Experimental Economics Center, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
  3. Li Hao & Daniel Houser, 2012. "Belief elicitation in the presence of naïve respondents: An experimental study," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 161-180, April.
  4. Tatyana Deryugina, 2013. "How do people update? The effects of local weather fluctuations on beliefs about global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 397-416, May.
  5. : Constantinos Antoniou & : Glenn W. Harrison & : Morten I. Lau & : Daniel Read, 2013. "Subjective Bayesian Beliefs," Working Papers wpn13-02, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  6. Demuynck, Thomas, 2013. "A mechanism for eliciting the mean and quantiles of a random variable," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 121-123.
  7. : Constantinos Antoniou & : Glenn W. Harrison & : Morten I. Lau & : Daniel Read, 2013. "Revealed Preference and the Strength/Weight Hypothesis," Working Papers wpn13-03, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  8. Owens, David & Grossman , Zachary & Fackler , Ryan, 2012. "The Control Premium: A Preference for Payoff Autonomy," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt5bg845s1, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.

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