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Risk preference elicitation without the confounding effect of probability weighting

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  • Drichoutis, Andreas
  • Lusk, Jayson

Abstract

In this paper we show that the wildly popular Holt and Laury (2002) risk preference elicitation method confounds estimates of the curvature of the utility function, the traditional notion of risk preference, with an estimate of the extent to which an individual weights probabilities non-linearly. We show that a slight modification to their approach can remove the confound while preserving the simplicity of the method which has made it so popular. Data from a laboratory experiment shows that our new method yields significantly different levels of implied risk aversion than the Holt and Laury task even after econometrically controlling for probability weighting in the latter. Implied risk aversion from the traditional Holt and Laury task is relatively insensitive to payout amount, but our new method reveals increasing relative risk aversion and risk neutrality at low payout amounts.

Suggested Citation

  • Drichoutis, Andreas & Lusk, Jayson, 2012. "Risk preference elicitation without the confounding effect of probability weighting," MPRA Paper 37762, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:37762
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tamás Csermely & Alexander Rabas, 2016. "How to reveal people’s preferences: Comparing time consistency and predictive power of multiple price list risk elicitation methods," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 107-136, December.
    2. Antoni Bosch-Domènech & Joaquim Silvestre, 2013. "Measuring risk aversion with lists: a new bias," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 75(4), pages 465-496, October.
    3. Aurélie Bonein & Stéphane Turolla, 2023. "Spatial competition with demand uncertainty: A laboratory experiment," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 906-939, October.
    4. Antoni Bosch-Domènech & Joaquim Silvestre, 2012. "Measuring risk aversion with lists: A new bias," Working Papers 239, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    5. Antoni Bosch-Domènech & Joaquim Silvestre, 2013. "Measuring risk aversion with lists: a new bias," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 75(4), pages 465-496, October.
    6. Holden , Stein T. & Tilahun , Mesfin, 2019. "The Devil is in the Details: Risk Preferences, Choice List Design, and Measurement Error," CLTS Working Papers 3/19, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Centre for Land Tenure Studies, revised 16 Oct 2019.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    expected utility theory; experiment; probability weighting; rank dependent utility; risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior

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