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Abstract

Outcome bias occurs when an evaluator considers ex-post outcomes when judging whether a choice was correct, ex-ante. We formalize this cognitive bias in a simple model of distorted Bayesian updating. We then examine strategy changes made by professional football coaches. We find they are more likely to revise their strategy after a loss than a win — even for narrow losses, which are uninformative about future success. This increased revision following a loss occurs even when a loss was expected, and the offensive strategy is revised even when failure is attributable to the defense. These results are consistent with our model’s predictions.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17477.

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Date of creation: Oct 2011
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17477

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Find related papers by JEL classification:

• C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
• D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Economics; Underlying Principles
• D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
• L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Recreation; Tourism

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

• NEP-ALL-2011-10-15 (All new papers)
• NEP-CBA-2011-10-15 (Central Banking)

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1. Card, David & Dahl, Gordon B., 2010. "Family Violence and Football: The Effect of Unexpected Emotional Cues on Violent Behavior," IZA Discussion Papers 4869, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
   
   • David Card & Gordon B. Dahl, 2011. "Family Violence and Football: The Effect of Unexpected Emotional Cues on Violent Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 103-143.
   • David Card & Gordon Dahl, 2009. "Family Violence and Football: The Effect of Unexpected Emotional Cues on Violent Behavior," RCER Working Papers 546, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
   • David Card & Gordon Dahl, 2009. "Family Violence and Football: The Effect of Unexpected Emotional Cues on Violent Behavior," NBER Working Papers 15497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
2. Earl, P.E., 1990. "Economics And Psychology: A Survey," Papers 1990-04, Tasmania - Department of Economics.
   
   • Earl, Peter E, 1990. "Economics and Psychology: A Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(402), pages 718-55, September.
3. Dobbs, Ian M, 1991. "A Bayesian Approach to Decision-Making under Ambiguity," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 58(232), pages 417-40, November.

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