Expectations as Reference Points: Field Evidence from Experienced Subjects in a Competitive, High-Stakes Environment
Abstract
We show that professional soccer players exhibit reference-dependent behavior during matches. Controlling for the state of the match and for unobserved heterogeneity, we show on a minute-by-minute basis that a player breaches the rules of the game, measured by the referee’s assignment of cards, with a significantly higher probability if his team is behind the expected match outcome, measured by pre-play betting odds of large professional bookmakers. We derive these results in two independent data sets, one from ten seasons of the German Bundesliga, the other from eight seasons the English Premier League, each with more than half a million minutes of play.Download Info
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3830.Length:
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3830
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Related research
Keywords: reference points; expectations; experience; high stakes; competition;Other versions of this item:
- Björn Bartling & Leif Brandes & Daniel Schunk, 2012. "Expectations as reference points: field evidence from experienced subjects in a competitive, high-stakes environment," ECON - Working Papers 073, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
- D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Economics; Underlying Principles
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Recreation; Tourism
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