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Reference-Dependent Risk Attitudes

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Author Info
Botond Kőszegi
Matthew Rabin
Abstract

We use Koszegi and Rabin's (2006) model of reference-dependent utility, and an extension of it that applies to decisions with delayed consequences, to study preferences over monetary risk. Because our theory equates the reference point with recent probabilistic beliefs about outcomes, it predicts specific ways in which the environment influences attitudes toward modest-scale risk. It replicates "classical" prospect theory—including the prediction of distaste for insuring losses—when exposure to risk is a surprise, but implies first-order risk aversion when a risk, and the possibility of insuring it, are anticipated. A prior expectation to take on risk decreases aversion to both the anticipated and additional risk. For large-scale risk, the model allows for standard "consumption utility" to dominate reference-dependent "gain-loss utility," generating nearly identical risk aversion across situations. (JEL D81)

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1257/aer.97.4.1047
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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/article_detail.php?journal=AER&volume=97&issue=4&article=1&issue_date=September2007
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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 97 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 1047-1073
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:97:y:2007:i:4:p:1047-1073

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  1. Abeler, Johannes & Falk, Armin & Götte, Lorenz & Huffman, David, 2009. "Reference Points and Effort Provision," CEPR Discussion Papers 7221, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Eriksen, Kristoffer W. & Kvaløy, Ola & Olsen, Trond E., 2008. "Tournaments with prize-setting agents," Discussion Papers 2008/23, Department of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Ulrich Schmidt & Chris Starmer & Robert Sugden, 2008. "Third-generation prospect theory," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 203-223, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Vincent Crawford & Juanjuan Meng, 2008. "New York City Cabdrivers' Labor Supply Revisited: Reference-Dependence Preferences with Rational-Expectations Targets for Hours and Income," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2008-03, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Hopfensitz, Astrid, 2009. "Previous outcomes and reference dependence: A meta study of repeated investment tasks with and without restricted feedback," MPRA Paper 16096, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Di Tella, Rafael & Dubra, Juan, 2008. "Anger and Regulation," MPRA Paper 14442, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Mar 2009. [Downloadable!]
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