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Do Asset Market Prices Reflect Traders' Judgment Biases?

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Author Info

  • Ananda Ganguly
  • John Kagel
  • Donald Moser

Abstract

The existence of base rate fallacy (BRF) bias is explored employing: (i) a context treatment with a narrative story applied to asset markets and (ii) an isomorphic abstract setting using balls-and-bingo cages. Probability estimates reflect a BRF bias in both treatments, but is stronger with context. Prices track highest expected dividend values (HEDVs) with context, resulting in strongly biased prices relative to the Bayesian norm when biased traders have HEDVs. In the abstract treatment prices do not track HEDVs nearly as closely, resulting in prices closer to the BRF bias only when most traders hold biased beliefs. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1007848013750
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Risk and Uncertainty.

Volume (Year): 20 (2000)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 219-245

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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:20:y:2000:i:3:p:219-245

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100299

Related research

Keywords: asset markets; base rate fallacy; overreaction; Bayesian norm; experiment;

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References

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  1. Anderson, M.J. & Sunder, S., 1989. "Professional Traders As Intuitive Bayesians," GSIA Working Papers 88-89-51, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  2. Arrow, Kenneth J, 1982. "Risk Perception in Psychology and Economics," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(1), pages 1-9, January.
  3. Grether, David M, 1978. "Recent Psychological Studies of Behavior under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 70-74, May.
  4. Grether, David M, 1980. "Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model: The Representativeness Heuristic," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 537-57, November.
  5. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
  6. Nicholas Barberis & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "A Model of Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 5926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1994. "Behavioral Capital Asset Pricing Theory," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(03), pages 323-349, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Charness, Gary B & Karni, Edi, 2007. "Individual and Group Decision Making Under Risk: An Experimental Study of Bayesian Updating and Violations of First-order Stochastic Dominance," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt4gr7j8z8, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  2. Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2005. "Individual Irrationality and Aggregate Outcomes," Discussion Papers 05-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  3. Ying Luo, Guo, 2013. "Can representativeness heuristic traders survive in a competitive securities market?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 152-164.
  4. Ackert, Lucy F. & Kluger, Brian D. & Qi, Li, 2012. "Irrationality and beliefs in a laboratory asset market: Is it me or is it you?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 278-291.
  5. Jacob K. Goeree & Theo Offerman, 2000. "Efficiency in Auctions with Private and Common Values: An Experimental Study," Virginia Economics Online Papers 347, University of Virginia, Department of Economics.
  6. Nathan Berg & G. Biele & Gerd Gigerenzer, 2013. "Does Consistency Predict Accuracy of Beliefs?: Economists Surveyed About PSA," Working Papers 1308, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2013.
  7. Lucy F. Ackert & Bryan K. Church & Ping Zhang, 2002. "Asset prices and informed traders' abilities: evidence from experimental asset markets," Working Paper 2002-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  8. Colin Camerer, 1998. "Bounded Rationality in Individual Decision Making," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 163-183, September.

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