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Do Asset Market Prices Reflect Traders' Judgment Biases?

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Author Info

  • Ananda Ganguly
  • John Kagel
  • Donald Moser

Abstract

The existence of base rate fallacy (BRF) bias is explored employing: (i) a context treatment with a narrative story applied to asset markets and (ii) an isomorphic abstract setting using balls-and-bingo cages. Probability estimates reflect a BRF bias in both treatments, but is stronger with context. Prices track highest expected dividend values (HEDVs) with context, resulting in strongly biased prices relative to the Bayesian norm when biased traders have HEDVs. In the abstract treatment prices do not track HEDVs nearly as closely, resulting in prices closer to the BRF bias only when most traders hold biased beliefs. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1007848013750
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Risk and Uncertainty.

Volume (Year): 20 (2000)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 219-245

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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:20:y:2000:i:3:p:219-245

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100299

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Keywords: asset markets; base rate fallacy; overreaction; Bayesian norm; experiment;

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  1. Anderson, M.J. & Sunder, S., 1989. "Professional Traders As Intuitive Bayesians," GSIA Working Papers 88-89-51, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  2. Grether, David M, 1980. "Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model: The Representativeness Heuristic," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 537-57, November.
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  4. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1994. "Behavioral Capital Asset Pricing Theory," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(03), pages 323-349, September.
  5. Grether, David M., . "Recent Psychological Studies of Behavior Under Uncertainty," Working Papers 82, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  6. Arrow, Kenneth J, 1982. "Risk Perception in Psychology and Economics," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(1), pages 1-9, January.
  7. Nicholas Barberis & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "A Model of Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 5926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ackert, Lucy F. & Kluger, Brian D. & Qi, Li, 2012. "Irrationality and beliefs in a laboratory asset market: Is it me or is it you?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 278-291.
  2. Berg, Nathan & Biele, Guido & Gigerenzer, Gerd, 2010. "Does consistency predict accuracy of beliefs?: Economists surveyed about PSA," MPRA Paper 26590, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2005. "Individual Irrationality and Aggregate Outcomes," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 43-66, Fall.
  4. Jacob K. Goeree & Theo Offerman, 2000. "Efficiency in Auctions with Private and Common Values: An Experimental Study," Virginia Economics Online Papers 347, University of Virginia, Department of Economics.
  5. Colin Camerer, 1998. "Bounded Rationality in Individual Decision Making," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 163-183, September.
  6. Frey, Bruno S. & Gallus, Jana, 2014. "Aggregate effects of behavioral anomalies: A new research area," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 8(18), pages 1-15.
  7. Gary Charness & Edi Karni & Dan Levin, 2007. "Individual and group decision making under risk: An experimental study of Bayesian updating and violations of first-order stochastic dominance," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 129-148, October.
  8. Ackert, Lucy F. & Church, Bryan K. & Zhang, Ping, 2004. "Asset prices and informed traders' abilities: Evidence from experimental asset markets," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 609-626, October.
  9. Ying Luo, Guo, 2013. "Can representativeness heuristic traders survive in a competitive securities market?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 152-164.
  10. Chewning, Eugene Jr. & Coller, Maribeth & Tuttle, Brad, 2004. "Do market prices reveal the decision models of sophisticated investors?: Evidence from the laboratory," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 739-758, November.

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