Do Asset Market Prices Reflect Traders' Judgment Biases?
AbstractThe existence of base rate fallacy (BRF) bias is explored employing: (i) a context treatment with a narrative story applied to asset markets and (ii) an isomorphic abstract setting using balls-and-bingo cages. Probability estimates reflect a BRF bias in both treatments, but is stronger with context. Prices track highest expected dividend values (HEDVs) with context, resulting in strongly biased prices relative to the Bayesian norm when biased traders have HEDVs. In the abstract treatment prices do not track HEDVs nearly as closely, resulting in prices closer to the BRF bias only when most traders hold biased beliefs. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Risk and Uncertainty.
Volume (Year): 20 (2000)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100299
asset markets; base rate fallacy; overreaction; Bayesian norm; experiment;
Other versions of this item:
- Ganguly, Ananda R & Kagel, John H & Moser, Donald V, 2000. " Do Asset Market Prices Reflect Traders' Judgment Biases?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 219-45, May.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Anderson, M.J. & Sunder, S., 1989.
"Professional Traders As Intuitive Bayesians,"
GSIA Working Papers
88-89-51, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Anderson, Matthew J. & Sunder, Shyam, 1995. "Professional Traders as Intuitive Bayesians," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 185-202, November.
- Grether, David M, 1980.
"Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model: The Representativeness Heuristic,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 537-57, November.
- Grether, David M., . "Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model: The Representativeness Heuristic," Working Papers 245, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979.
"Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
7656, David K. Levine.
- Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March.
- Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1994. "Behavioral Capital Asset Pricing Theory," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(03), pages 323-349, September.
- Grether, David M., .
"Recent Psychological Studies of Behavior Under Uncertainty,"
82, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Grether, David M, 1978. "Recent Psychological Studies of Behavior under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 70-74, May.
- Arrow, Kenneth J, 1982. "Risk Perception in Psychology and Economics," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(1), pages 1-9, January.
- Nicholas Barberis & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997.
"A Model of Investor Sentiment,"
NBER Working Papers
5926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ackert, Lucy F. & Kluger, Brian D. & Qi, Li, 2012. "Irrationality and beliefs in a laboratory asset market: Is it me or is it you?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 278-291.
- Berg, Nathan & Biele, Guido & Gigerenzer, Gerd, 2010.
"Does consistency predict accuracy of beliefs?: Economists surveyed about PSA,"
26590, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Berg, Nathan & Biele, Guido & Gigerenzer, Gerd, 2010. "Does Consistency Predict Accuracy of Beliefs?: Economists Surveyed About PSA," MPRA Paper 24976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Nathan Berg & G. Biele & Gerd Gigerenzer, 2013. "Does Consistency Predict Accuracy of Beliefs?: Economists Surveyed About PSA," Working Papers 1308, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2013.
- Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2005.
"Individual Irrationality and Aggregate Outcomes,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 43-66, Fall.
- Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, . "Individual Irrationality and Aggregate Outcomes," IEW - Working Papers 252, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
- Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2005. "Individual Irrationality and Aggregate Outcomes," Discussion Papers 05-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Jacob K. Goeree & Theo Offerman, 2000.
"Efficiency in Auctions with Private and Common Values: An Experimental Study,"
Virginia Economics Online Papers
347, University of Virginia, Department of Economics.
- Theo Offerman, 2002. "Efficiency in Auctions with Private and Common Values: An Experimental Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 625-643, June.
- Jacob K. Goeree & Theo Offerman, 2000. "Efficiency in Auctions with Private and Common Values: An Experimental Study," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-045/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- Colin Camerer, 1998. "Bounded Rationality in Individual Decision Making," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 163-183, September.
- Frey, Bruno S. & Gallus, Jana, 2014. "Aggregate effects of behavioral anomalies: A new research area," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 8(18), pages 1-15.
- Gary Charness & Edi Karni & Dan Levin, 2007.
"Individual and group decision making under risk: An experimental study of Bayesian updating and violations of first-order stochastic dominance,"
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,
Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 129-148, October.
- Charness, Gary B & Karni, Edi, 2007. "Individual and Group Decision Making Under Risk: An Experimental Study of Bayesian Updating and Violations of First-order Stochastic Dominance," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt4gr7j8z8, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
- Ackert, Lucy F. & Church, Bryan K. & Zhang, Ping, 2004.
"Asset prices and informed traders' abilities: Evidence from experimental asset markets,"
Accounting, Organizations and Society,
Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 609-626, October.
- Lucy F. Ackert & Bryan K. Church & Ping Zhang, 2002. "Asset prices and informed traders' abilities: evidence from experimental asset markets," Working Paper 2002-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Ying Luo, Guo, 2013. "Can representativeness heuristic traders survive in a competitive securities market?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 152-164.
- Chewning, Eugene Jr. & Coller, Maribeth & Tuttle, Brad, 2004. "Do market prices reveal the decision models of sophisticated investors?: Evidence from the laboratory," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 739-758, November.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.