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Overconfidence and trading volume

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Author Info
Markus Glaser ()
Martin Weber ()
Abstract

Theoretical models predict that overconfident investors will trade more than rational investors. We directly test this hypothesis by correlating individual overconfidence scores with several measures of trading volume of individual investors. Approximately 3,000 online broker investors were asked to answer an internet questionnaire which was designed to measure various facets of overconfidence (miscalibration, volatility estimates, better than average effect). The measures of trading volume were calculated by the trades of 215 individual investors who answered the questionnaire. We find that investors who think that they are above average in terms of investment skills or past performance (but who did not have above average performance in the past) trade more. Measures of miscalibration are, contrary to theory, unrelated to measures of trading volume. This result is striking as theoretical models that incorporate overconfident investors mainly motivate this assumption by the calibration literature and model overconfidence as underestimation of the variance of signals. In connection with other recent findings, we conclude that the usual way of motivating and modeling overconfidence which is mainly based on the calibration literature has to be treated with caution. Moreover, our way of empirically evaluating behavioral finance models—the correlation of economic and psychological variables and the combination of psychometric measures of judgment biases (such as overconfidence scores) and field data—seems to be a promising way to better understand which psychological phenomena actually drive economic behavior. Copyright The Geneva Association 2007

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10713-007-0003-3
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Article provided by Springer in its journal THE GENEVA RISK AND INSURANCE REVIEW.

Volume (Year): 32 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (June)
Pages: 1-36
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Handle: RePEc:kap:geneva:v:32:y:2007:i:1:p:1-36

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Related research
Keywords: Overconfidence; Differences of opinion; Trading volume; Individual investors; Investor behavior; Correlation of economic and psychological variables; Combination of psychometric measures of judgment biases and field data; D8; G1;

References listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Menkhoff, Lukas & Nikiforow, Marina, 2008. "Professionals' endorsement of behavioral finance: Does it impact their perception of markets and themselves?," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-392, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Nikiforow, Marina, 2009. "Does training on behavioral finance influence fund managers' perception and behavior?," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-419, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
  3. Nosic, Alen & Weber, Martin, 2007. "Determinants of Risk Taking Behavior: The role of Risk Attitudes, Risk Perceptions and Beliefs," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-56, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  4. Han, Bing & Hirshleifer, David & Wang, Tracy, 2005. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Discount Puzzle," MPRA Paper 6497, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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