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Overconfidence in Currency Markets

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Author Info

  • Thomas Oberlechner

    (Webster University Vienna)

  • Carol Osler

    ()
    (International Business School, Brandeis University)

Abstract

This paper tests the influential hypothesis, typically attributed to Friedman (1953), that irrational traders will be driven out of financial markets by trading losses. The paper’s main finding is that overconfident currency dealers are not driven out of the market. Traders with extensive experience are neither more nor less overconfident than their inexperienced colleagues. We first provide evidence that currency dealers are indeed overconfident, which is notable since they get daily trading practice and face intense financial incentives to accuracy.

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File URL: http://www.brandeis.edu/departments/economics/RePEc/brd/doc/Brandeis_WP02.pdf
File Function: First version, 2009
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School in its series Working Papers with number 02.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:brd:wpaper:02

Contact details of provider:
Postal: MS032, P.O. Box 9110, Waltham, MA 02454-9110
Web page: http://www.brandeis.edu/departments/economics/
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Related research

Keywords: Overconfidence; imperfect rationality; currency dealers; survival of imperfect rationality;

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References

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  1. Dewachter, Hans, 2001. "Can Markov switching models replicate chartist profits in the foreign exchange market?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 25-41, February.
  2. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. " Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-95, June.
  3. Biais, Bruno & Hilton, Denis & Mazurier, Karine & Pouget, Sébastien, 2004. "Judgmental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market," IDEI Working Papers 259, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  4. Michael Dueker & Christopher J. Neely, 2006. "Can Markov switching models predict excess foreign exchange returns?," Working Papers 2001-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  5. Richard Deaves & Erik Lüders & Guo Ying Luo, 2009. "An Experimental Test of the Impact of Overconfidence and Gender on Trading Activity," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 13(3), pages 555-575.
  6. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
  7. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Ian W. Marsh, 2000. "How Do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?," NBER Working Papers 7524, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
  9. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2008. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Working Papers 14473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Menkhoff, Lukas, 2001. "Short-Term Horizons in Foreign Exchange? Survey Evidence from Dealers and Fund Managers," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 27-47.
  11. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-51, September.
  12. Gerhard van de Venter & David Michayluk, 2008. "An Insight into Overconfidence in the Forecasting Abilities of Financial Advisors," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 32(3), pages 545-557, March.
  13. Kirchler, Erich & Maciejovsky, Boris, 2002. " Simultaneous Over- and Underconfidence: Evidence from Experimental Asset Markets," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 65-85, July.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pierpaolo Benigno & Anastasios Karantounias, 2006. "Overconfidence, Subjective Perception and Pricing Behavior," NBER Working Papers 11922, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Menkhoff, Lukas, 2010. "The use of technical analysis by fund managers: International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2573-2586, November.
  3. Santos-Pinto, Luís, 2003. "Positive self-image and incentives in organizations," MPRA Paper 3141, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Feb 2007.
  4. Gloede, Oliver & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Financial professionals' overconfidence:Is it experience, function, or attitude?," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-428, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  5. Fabrice Rousseau & Laurent Germain & Fabrice Rousseau & Anne Vanhems, 2008. "Irrational Financial Markets," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1870108.pdf, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  6. Beckmann, Daniela & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2008. "Will Women Be Women? Analyzing the Gender Difference among Financial Experts," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-391, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  7. Michailova, Julija, 2010. "Development of the overconfidence measurement instrument for the economic experiment," MPRA Paper 26384, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Markus Glaser & Martin Weber, 2007. "Overconfidence and trading volume," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 1-36, June.
  9. Tracy Yue Wang & David Hirshleifer & Bing Han, 2010. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Discount Puzzle," 2010 Meeting Papers 1201, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmidt, Ulrich & Brozynski, Torsten, 2006. "The impact of experience on risk taking, overconfidence, and herding of fund managers: Complementary survey evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1753-1766, October.
  11. Luís Santos-Pinto, 2010. "Positive Self-Image In Tournaments," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(2), pages 475-496, 05.
  12. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2011. "Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2011-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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