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Financial professionals' overconfidence:Is it experience, function, or attitude?

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  • Gloede, Oliver
  • Menkhoff, Lukas

Abstract

This paper examines financial professionals' overconfidence in their forecasting performance. We compare individuals' self-rating of performance with the true performance, both measured relative to the same peer group. The forecasters in our sample show overconfidence on average, although to a moderate degree, including many cases of underconfidence. In analyzing this, we find that working experience is accompanied by less overconfidence. Function is also related to less overconfidence, such as being a fund manager and using fundamental analysis. The same effect is found for the attitude to herd, whereas recent success appears with more overconfident professionals.

Suggested Citation

  • Gloede, Oliver & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Financial professionals' overconfidence:Is it experience, function, or attitude?," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-428, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    • Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-428
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    Cited by:

    1. Neubert, Milena & Bannier, Christina E., 2016. "Actual and perceived financial sophistication and wealth accumulation: The role of education and gender," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145593, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Markus Spiwoks & Kilian Bizer, 2018. "Correlation Neglect and Overconfidence. An Experimental Study," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(3), pages 1-5.
    3. Felix Holzmeister & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler & Florian Lindner & Utz Weitzel & Stefan Zeisberger, 2020. "What Drives Risk Perception? A Global Survey with Financial Professionals and Laypeople," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(9), pages 3977-4002, September.
    4. Brückbauer, Frank & Schröder, Michael, 2021. "Data resource profile: The ZEW FMS dataset," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-100, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    5. Brückbauer Frank & Schröder Michael, 2023. "The ZEW Financial Market Survey Panel," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 243(3-4), pages 451-469, June.
    6. Markus Arnold & Florian Elsinger & Frederick W. Rankin, 2021. "The Unintended Consequences of Headquarters’ Involvement in Decentralized Transfer Price Negotiations: Experimental Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7912-7931, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    overconfidence; self-rating; forecasting; foreign exchange; better-than-average; experience; performance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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