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Importance of Technical and Fundamental Analysis in the European Foreign Exchange Market

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Author Info
Oberlechner, Thomas
Abstract

This article presents findings of a questionnaire and an interview survey on the perceived importance of chartist/technical and fundamental analysis among foreign exchange traders and financial journalists in Frankfurt, London, Vienna, and Zurich. Results confirm that most traders use both forecasting approaches, and that the shorter the forecasting horizon, the more important chartist/technical analysis is. Financial journalists put more emphasis on fundamental analysis than do foreign exchange traders. Results indicate that the importance of chartism may have increased over the last decade. Regarding the use of chartist/technical and fundamental analysis on seven forecasting horizons, four distinct clusters of traders can be identified. Forecasting styles and the overall importance attached to fundamental versus chartist/technical analysis vary across different trading locations. Foreign exchange traders mention a series of psychological motives and consequences of the use of chartism. Copyright @ 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 6 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 81-93
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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:6:y:2001:i:1:p:81-93

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  1. Bask, Mikael, 2007. "Long swings and chaos in the exchange rate in a DSGE model with a Taylor rule," Research Discussion Papers 19/2007, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bask , Mikael, 2006. "Announcement effects on exchange rate movements: continuity as a selection criterion among the REE," Research Discussion Papers 6/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  3. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2009. "Modelling oil price expectations: evidence from survey data," EconomiX Working Papers 2009-28, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bask, Mikael, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy under heterogeneity in currency trade," Research Discussion Papers 21/2007, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  5. Bask, Mikael & Selander, Carina, 2007. "Robust Taylor rules in an open economy with heterogeneous expectations and least squares learning," Research Discussion Papers 6/2007, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  6. Bask, Mikael, 2007. "Instrument rules in monetary policy under heterogeneity in currency trade," Research Discussion Papers 22/2007, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals : Technical Analysis," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 769, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Mikael Bask, 2009. "Announcement effects on exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 64-84. [Downloadable!]
  9. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2005. "The Use of Trading Strategies by Fund Managers: Some First Survey Evidence," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-314, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Selander, Carina, 2006. "Chartist Trading in Exchange Rate Theory," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 698, Umeå University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Bask, Mikael, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility without the contrivance of fundamentals and the failure of PPP," Research Discussion Papers 8/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  12. Bask , Mikael & Fidrmuc , Jarko, 2006. "Fundamentals and technical trading: behaviour of exchange rates in the CEECs," Research Discussion Papers 10/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Bask, Mikael, 2006. "Adaptive learning in an expectational difference equation with several lags: selecting among learnable REE," Research Discussion Papers 7/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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