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Short‐Term Horizons in Foreign Exchange? Survey Evidence from dealers and Fund Managers

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  • Lukas Menkhoff

Abstract

The paper examines the extent and determinants of short‐term horizons in taking open positions using a questionnaire mailed to professional foreign exchange market participants in Germany. The findings reveal that the absolute anticipation horizon is short, but not necessarily short‐termist. Another related but empirically different measure is proposed, based on the relative length of different horizons; its use clearly shows widespread restrictions in relation to optimal behavior. No determinants in personal characteristics were established for either empirical measure; rather the instituional environment was found to be an influence. Thus, professionals may adept rationally to their incentive structure, which works towards short‐term horizons in position taking.

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  • Lukas Menkhoff, 2001. "Short‐Term Horizons in Foreign Exchange? Survey Evidence from dealers and Fund Managers," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 27-48, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:54:y:2001:i:1:p:27-48
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-6435.00139
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    Cited by:

    1. Yan Liang, 2011. "Money-manager capitalism, capital flows and development in emerging market economies: a Post-Keynesian Institutionalist analysis," Chapters, in: Charles J. Whalen (ed.), Financial Instability and Economic Security after the Great Recession, chapter 9, pages 179-201, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Oberlechner, Thomas & Osler, Carol, 2012. "Survival of Overconfidence in Currency Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 91-113, February.
    3. Fischer, Andreas M. & Isakova, Gulzina & Termechikov, Ulanbek, 2009. "Do FX traders in Bishkek have similar perceptions to their London colleagues?: Survey evidence of market practitioners' views," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 98-109, March.
    4. Jan Christoph Ruelke & Christian Pierdzioch & Georg Stadtmann, 2012. "On the internal consistency of short-term, medium-term and long-term oil price forecasts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(21), pages 2757-2765, July.
    5. Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2009. "Two currencies, one model? Evidence from the Wall Street Journal forecast poll," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 588-596, October.
    6. Justyna Przychodzen & Fernando Gómez-Bezares & Wojciech Przychodzen & Mikel Larreina, 2016. "ESG Issues among Fund Managers—Factors and Motives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-19, October.
    7. Lukas Menkhoff, 2002. "Institutional Investors: The External Costs of a Successful Innovation," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 907-933, December.
    8. Alexander Mende & Lukas Menkhoff, 2003. "Tobin Tax Effects Seen from the Foreign Exchange Market's Microstructure," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 227-247, July.
    9. Audretsch, David B. & Stadtmann, Georg, 2005. "Biases in FX-forecasts: Evidence from panel data," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 99-111, August.
    10. John Harvey, 2009. "Currency Market Participants' Mental Model and the Collapse of the Dollar: 2001-2008," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 931-949.
    11. Thomas Oberlechner & Carol Osler, 2009. "Overconfidence in Currency Markets," Working Papers 02, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    12. Daniela Beckmann & Lukas Menkhoff, 2008. "Will Women Be Women? Analyzing the Gender Difference among Financial Experts," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 364-384, August.
    13. Pierdzioch Christian & Stadtmann Georg, 2010. "Herdenverhalten von Wechselkursprognostikern? / Herd Behavior of Exchange Rate Forecasters?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(4), pages 436-453, August.
    14. Lendvai, Julia & Raciborski, Rafal & Vogel, Lukas, 2013. "Macroeconomic effects of an equity transaction tax in a general-equilibrium model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 466-482.
    15. Michael Frenkel & Matthias Mauch & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2017. "Forecaster Rationality and Expectation Formation in Foreign Exchange Markets: Do Emerging Markets Differ from Industrialized Economies?," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 17-04, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    16. Pierdzioch, Christian & Schäfer, Dirk & Stadtmann, Georg, 2010. "Fly with the eagles or scratch with the chickens? Zum Herdenverhalten von Wechselkursprognostikern," Discussion Papers 287, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    17. Ruelke, Jan C. & Frenkel, Michael R. & Stadtmann, Georg, 2010. "Expectations on the yen/dollar exchange rate - Evidence from the Wall Street Journal forecast poll," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 355-368, September.

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