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Forecaster Rationality and Expectation Formation in Foreign Exchange Markets: Do Emerging Markets Differ from Industrialized Economies?

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Listed:
  • Michael Frenkel
  • Matthias Mauch
  • Jan-Christoph Rülke

Abstract

This paper uses the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to investigate how forecasters in the foreign exchange market form expectations. In order to explain the expectation formation of forecasters, around 50,000 forecasts for 22 OECD-member currencies are analyzed. The results indicate that forecasters do not form expectations rationally when tested for unbiasedness and orthogonality. The results also suggest that forecasts for industrialized economies show a mix of trend-following and fundamentally-oriented behavior. By contrast, forecasts for emerging markets show significantly more destabilizing expectations. We find forecasting tendencies to strengthen in the short-run and medium-run when controlling for the Balassa-Samuelson effect. For long-run forecasts however this can not be confirmed.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Frenkel & Matthias Mauch & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2017. "Forecaster Rationality and Expectation Formation in Foreign Exchange Markets: Do Emerging Markets Differ from Industrialized Economies?," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 17-04, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:whu:wpaper:17-04
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    File URL: http://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hbz:992-opus4-4036
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange; forecast bias; expectation formation; chartist; fundamentalist; Balassa-Samuelson;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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