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Heterogeneous Expectations and Tests of Efficiency in the Yen/Dollar Forward Exchange Rate Market

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  • Elliott, Graham
  • ITO, TAKATOSHI

Abstract

This paper examines the efficiency of the forward yen/dollar market using micro survey data. Conventional tests of unbiasedness do not correspond directly to the zero-profit condition. Instead, we use the survey data to calculate potential profits of individual forecasters based on a natural trading rule. We find that although the survey data are not the best predictor of future spot rates in terms of typical mean square forecast error criteria, the survey data can be used to obtain on average positive profits. However, these profits are small and highly variable. Similar results are found when we examine profits generated by a trading rule using regression forecasts. The profits are found to be correlated with risk type variables but not other available information

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC San Diego in its series University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series with number qt5wm0q8mz.

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Date of creation: 01 Feb 1998
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt5wm0q8mz

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Keywords: foreign exchange rate; expectations; forward rate; efficient markets;

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  1. Lars Peter Hansen & Robert J. Hodrick, 1983. "Risk Averse Speculation in the Forward Foreign Exchange Market: An Econometric Analysis of Linear Models," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 113-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  3. Diebold, Francis X. & Nason, James A., 1990. "Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 315-332, May.
  4. Robert E. Cumby, 1987. "Is it Risk? Explaining Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 2380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  6. David K. Backus & Allan W. Gregory & Chris I. Telmer, 1992. "Accounting for Forward Rates in Markets for Foreign Currency," Working Papers 92-18b, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  7. Leitch, Gordon & Tanner, J Ernest, 1991. "Economic Forecast Evaluation: Profits versus the Conventional Error Measures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 580-90, June.
  8. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February.
  9. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 1991. "On Biases in the Measurement of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums," NBER Working Papers 3861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
  11. Sweeney, Richard J, 1986. " Beating the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 163-82, March.
  12. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1985. "Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Ito, Takatoshi, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 434-49, June.
  14. Levich, Richard M. & Thomas, Lee III, 1993. "The significance of technical trading-rule profits in the foreign exchange market: a bootstrap approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 451-474, October.
  15. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 1991. "Characterizing Predictable Components in Excess Returns on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," NBER Working Papers 3790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  17. Bilson, John F O, 1981. "The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 435-51, July.
  18. David Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris Telmer, 1996. "Affine Models of Currency Pricing," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-9, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  19. Frankel, Jeff & Froot, Ken, 1986. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1972q8wm, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  20. Breen, William & Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1989. " Economic Significance of Predictable Variations in Stock Index Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1177-89, December.
  21. Bekaert, Geert, 1995. "The Time Variation of Expected Returns and Volatility in Foreign-Exchange Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 397-408, October.
  22. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
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