Investor Overconfidence and Trading Volume
AbstractThe proposition that investors are overconfident about their valuation and trading skills can explain high observed trading volume. With biased self-attribution, the level of investor overconfidence and thus trading volume varies with past returns. We test the trading volume predictions of formal overconfidence models and find that share turnover is positively related to lagged returns for many months. The relationship holds for both market-wide and individual security turnover, which we interpret as evidence of investor overconfidence and the disposition effect, respectively. Security volume is more responsive to market return shocks than to security return shocks, and both relationships are more pronounced in small-cap stocks and in earlier periods where individual investors hold a greater proportion of shares. (JEL G11, G12) Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Society for Financial Studies in its journal The Review of Financial Studies.
Volume (Year): 19 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
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Postal: Oxford University Press, Journals Department, 2001 Evans Road, Cary, NC 27513 USA.
Web page: http://www.rfs.oupjournals.org/
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
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