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Speculating against an overconfident market

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  • Caballe, Jordi
  • Sakovics, Jozsef

Abstract

We distinguish two components of self-confidence in a financial market: private confidence measures the self-confidence level of speculators, while public confidence measures the confidence level they attribute to their competitors. We then study how independent changes in these components affect the equilibrium trading strategies. We conduct the analysis in a financial market with imperfect competition where investors submit limit orders. We calculate the unique linear symmetric equilibrium as well as the major indicators of the market. In addition to providing a partial explanation for the excess volatility of asset prices as well as for trading volume unexplained by the arrival of new information, our model highlights the differences between the effects of public versus private confidence.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Markets.

Volume (Year): 6 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 199-225

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Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:6:y:2003:i:2:p:199-225

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References

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  1. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1996. " Strategic Trading When Agents Forecast the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1437-78, September.
  2. Simon Gervais & Terrance Odean, . "Learning To Be Overconfident," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 05-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  3. Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
  4. De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Scholarly Articles 3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  5. Rochet, Jean-Charles & Vila, Jean-Luc, 1994. "Insider Trading without Normality," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 131-52, January.
  6. Caballe, Jordi, 1992. "Market versus limit orders," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 339-344, November.
  7. Kyle, Albert S & Wang, F Albert, 1997. " Speculation Duopoly with Agreement to Disagree: Can Overconfidence Survive the Market Test?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2073-90, December.
  8. Roll, Richard, 1984. "Orange Juice and Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 861-80, December.
  9. Margaret A. Neale & Max H. Bazerman, 1983. "The role of perspective-taking ability in negotiating under different forms of arbitration," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 36(3), pages 378-388, April.
  10. Terrance Odean, 1998. "Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average," Finance 9803001, EconWPA.
  11. Terrance Odean, 1998. "Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1887-1934, December.
  12. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  13. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, 04.
  14. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December.
  15. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
  16. Dunne, T. & Roberts, M.J. & Samuelson, L., 1988. "Pattenrs Of Firm Entry And Exit In U.S. Manufacturing Industries," Papers 1-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  17. Palomino, Frederic, 1996. " Noise Trading in Small Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1537-50, September.
  18. Kyle, Albert S, 1989. "Informed Speculation with Imperfect Competition," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(3), pages 317-55, July.
  19. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Chuang, Wen-I & Susmel, Rauli, 2011. "Who is the more overconfident trader? Individual vs. institutional investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1626-1644, July.
  2. Gelinde Fellner & Sebastian Krügel, 2012. "Judgmental Overconfidence and Trading Activity," Jena Economic Research Papers 2012-057, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.
  3. Dennis Dittrich & Werner Güth & Boris Maciejovsky, 2001. "Overconfidence in Investment Decisions: An Experimental Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 626, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2003. "Overconfidence and Trading Volume," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 03-07, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  5. Diego García & Francesco Sangiorgi & Branko Urošević, 2007. "Overconfidence and Market Efficiency with Heterogeneous Agents," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 313-336, February.
  6. Michailova, Julija, 2010. "Development of the overconfidence measurement instrument for the economic experiment," MPRA Paper 26384, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Palomino, F.A. & Sadrieh, A., 2003. "Overconfidence and Delegated Portfolio Management," Discussion Paper 2003-54, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  8. Beracha, Eli & Fedenia, Mark & Skiba, Hilla, 2014. "Culture's impact on institutional investors' trading frequency," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 34-47.
  9. Julija Michailova & Ulrich Schmidt, 2011. "Overconfidence and Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets," Kiel Working Papers 1729, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  10. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2009. "Which past returns affect trading volume?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, February.

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