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Investment Decisions and Time Horizon: Risk Perception and Risk Behavior in Repeated Gambles

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Author Info

  • Alexander Klos

    ()
    (Lehrstuhl für Bankbetriebslehre, L 5,2, Universität Mannheim, 68131 Mannheim, Germany)

  • Elke U. Weber

    ()
    (Center for Decision Sciences and Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, 3022 Broadway, 716 Uris Hall, New York, New York 10027)

  • Martin Weber

    ()
    (Lehrstuhl für Bankbetriebslehre, L 5,2, Universität Mannheim, 68131 Mannheim, Germany, and CEPR, 90-98 Goswell Road, London EG1V 7RR, United Kingdom)

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    Abstract

    To investigate the effect of time horizon on investment behavior, this paper reports the results of an experiment in which business graduate students provided certainty equivalents and judged various dimensions of the outcome distribution of simple gambles that were played either once or repeatedly for 5 or 50 times. Systematic mistakes in the ex-ante estimations of the distributions of outcomes after (independent) repeated plays were observed. Despite correctly realizing that outcome standard deviation increases with the number of plays, respondents showed evidence of Samuelson's (1963) fallacy of large numbers. Perceived risk judgments showed only low correlations with standard deviation estimates, but were instead related to the anticipated probability of a loss (which was overestimated), mean excess loss, and the coefficient of variation. Implications for future research and practical implications for financial advisors are discussed.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0429
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

    Volume (Year): 51 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 12 (December)
    Pages: 1777-1790

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    Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:51:y:2005:i:12:p:1777-1790

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    Related research

    Keywords: risk; risk perception; repeated gambles; investment decisions; time horizon;

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    Cited by:
    1. Ludwig Ensthaler & Olga Nottmeyer & Georg Weizsäcker & Christian Zankiewicz, 2013. "Hidden Skewness: On the Difficulty of Multiplicative Compounding under Random Shocks," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1337, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Sergio Sousa, 2010. "Small-scale changes in wealth and attitudes toward risk," Discussion Papers 2010-11, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
    3. Martin Wallmeier, 2011. "Beyond payoff diagrams: how to present risk and return characteristics of structured products," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 313-338, September.
    4. Doerrenberg, Philipp & Duncan, Denvil & Zeppenfeld, Christopher, 2014. "Circumstantial Risk: Impact of Future Tax Evasion and Labor Supply Opportunities on Risk Exposure," IZA Discussion Papers 7917, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Sachse, Katharina & Jungermann, Helmut & Belting, Julia M., 2012. "Investment risk – The perspective of individual investors," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 437-447.
    6. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2008. "Are all professional investors sophisticated?," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover dp-397, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    7. Doerrenberg, Philipp & Duncan, Denvil & Zeppenfeld, Christopher, 2014. "Circumstantial risk: Impact of future tax evasion and labor supply opportunities on risk exposure," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-014, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    8. Hoffmann, Arvid O.I. & Pennings, Joost M.E., 2008. "Shareholder Activism and the Role of Marketing: A Framework for Analyzing and Managing Investor Relations," Research Memorandum 007, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    9. Ensthaler, Ludwig & Nottmeyer, Olga & Weizsäcker, Georg, 2010. "Hidden Skewness," IZA Discussion Papers 5109, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    10. Markus Glaser & Martin Weber, 2007. "Overconfidence and trading volume," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 1-36, June.
    11. Steinhorst, Martin P. & Bahrs, Enno, 2011. "Die Analyse der Rationalität im Verhalten von Stakeholdern des Agribusiness anhand eines Experiments," 51st Annual Conference, Halle, Germany, September 28-30, 2011 114490, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    12. Michael L. DeKay & John C. Hershey & Mark D. Spranca, & Peter A. Ubel & David A. Asch, 2006. "Are medical treatments for individuals and groups like single-play and multiple-play gambles?," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 1, pages 134-145, November.
    13. Alexander Klos, 2013. "Myopic loss aversion: Potential causes of replication failures," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 8(5), pages 617-629, September.

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