How Do Judgmental Overconfidence and Overoptimism Shape Innovative Activity?
AbstractRecent field evidence suggests a positive link between overconfidence and innovative activities. In this paper we argue that the connection between overconfidence and innovation is more complex than the previous literature suggests. In particular, we show theoretically and experimentally that different forms of overconfidence may have opposing effects on innovative activity. While overoptimism leads to an innovation enhancing effect, judgmental overconfidence inhibits innovation. Our results indicate that future research is well advised to take into account that the relationship between innovation and overconfidence may crucially depend on what type of overconfidence is most prevalent in a particular context.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 4084.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
innovation; entrepreneurship; overconfidence; experiment;
Other versions of this item:
- Herz, Holger & Schunk, Daniel & Zehnder, Christian, 2014. "How do judgmental overconfidence and overoptimism shape innovative activity?," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-23.
- Holger Herz & Daniel Schunk & Christian Zehnder, 2013. "How do judgmental overconfidence and overoptimism shape innovative activity?," ECON - Working Papers 106, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Nov 2013.
- C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
- D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
- D23 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Organizational Behavior; Transaction Costs; Property Rights
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