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Overconfidence?

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  • Benoît, Jean-Pierre
  • Dubra, Juan

Abstract

Many studies have shown that people display an apparent overconfidence. In particular, it is common for a majority of people to describe themselves as better than average. The literature takes for granted that this better-than-average effect is problematic. We argue, however, that, even accepting these studies completely on their own terms, there is nothing at all wrong with a strict majority of people rating themselves above the median.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 765.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:765

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Keywords: Overconfidence; Better than Average; Experiments; Irrationality; Signalling Models;

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References

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  1. Bernardo, Antonio & Welch, Ivo, 1997. "On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt6668s4pz, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
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  4. Ján Zábojník, 2004. "A model of rational bias in self-assessments," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 259-282, January.
  5. Wang, F. Albert, 2001. "Overconfidence, Investor Sentiment, and Evolution," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 138-170, April.
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  7. Diego García & Francesco Sangiorgi & Branko Urošević, 2007. "Overconfidence and Market Efficiency with Heterogeneous Agents," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 313-336, February.
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  12. Moore, Don A., 2007. "Not so above average after all: When people believe they are worse than average and its implications for theories of bias in social comparison," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 42-58, January.
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  16. Chuang, Wen-I & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2006. "An empirical evaluation of the overconfidence hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 2489-2515, September.
  17. Erik Hoelzl & Aldo Rustichini, 2005. "Overconfident: Do You Put Your Money On It?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 305-318, 04.
  18. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmidt, Ulrich & Brozynski, Torsten, 2006. "The impact of experience on risk taking, overconfidence, and herding of fund managers: Complementary survey evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1753-1766, October.
  19. Markus Noth & Martin Weber, 2003. "Information Aggregation with Random Ordering: Cascades and Overconfidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 166-189, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Cruces, Guillermo & Perez-Truglia, Ricardo & Tetaz, Martin, 2013. "Biased perceptions of income distribution and preferences for redistribution: Evidence from a survey experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 100-112.
  2. Néstor Gándelman & Rubén Hernández-Murillo, 2009. "The impact of inflation and unemployment on subjective personal and country evaluations," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 107-126.
  3. Ertac, Seda, 2011. "Does self-relevance affect information processing? Experimental evidence on the response to performance and non-performance feedback," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 532-545.
  4. Jean‐Pierre Benoît & Juan Dubra, 2011. "Apparent Overconfidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1591-1625, 09.
  5. Holger Herz & Daniel Schunk & Christian Zehnder, 2013. "How do judgmental overconfidence and overoptimism shape innovative activity?," ECON - Working Papers, Department of Economics - University of Zurich 106, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Nov 2013.
  6. Merkle, Christoph & Weber, Martin, 2011. "True overconfidence: The inability of rational information processing to account for apparent overconfidence," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 262-271.
  7. Rafael Di Tella & Juan Dubra, 2011. "Free to Punish? The American Dream and the Harsh Treatment of Criminals," NBER Working Papers 17309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ravazzolo, Francesco & Røisland, Øistein, 2011. "Why do people place lower weight on advice far from their own initial opinion?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 63-66, July.
  9. Benoît, Jean-Pierre & Dubra, Juan & Moore, Don, 2009. "Does the Better-Than-Average Effect Show That People Are Overconfident?: An Experiment," MPRA Paper 13168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Markus M. Mobius & Muriel Niederle & Paul Niehaus & Tanya S. Rosenblat, 2011. "Managing Self-Confidence: Theory and Experimental Evidence," NBER Working Papers 17014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Akiko Maruyama, 2010. "Learning about one’s own type in two-sided search," GRIPS Discussion Papers 10-26, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
  12. Grieco, Daniela & Hogarth, Robin M., 2009. "Overconfidence in absolute and relative performance: The regression hypothesis and Bayesian updating," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 756-771, October.

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