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Rational Overoptimism (and Other Biases)

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Eric Van den Steen

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Abstract

Rational agents with differing priors tend to be overoptimistic about their chances of success. In particular, an agent who tries to choose the action that is most likely to succeed, is more likely to choose an action of which he overestimated, rather than underestimated, the likelihood of success. After studying the comparative statics of this mechanism, I show that it also causes agents to attribute failure to exogenous factors but success to their own choice of action, to disproportionately believe that they will outperform others, to overestimate the precision of their estimates, and to overestimate their control over the outcome.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1257/0002828042002697
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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 94 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 1141-1151
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:94:y:2004:i:4:p:1141-1151

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Roland Bénabou & Jean Tirole, 2002. "Self-Confidence And Personal Motivation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(3), pages 871-915, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Brown, Keith C, 1974. "A Note on the Apparent Bias of Net Revenue Estimates for Capital Investment Projects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(4), pages 1215-16, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Brunnermeier, Markus K & Parker, Jonathan A, 2004. "Optimal Expectation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4656, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Harsanyi, John C, 1995. "Games with Incomplete Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 291-303, June.
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  5. Olivier Compte & Andrew Postlewaite, 2001. "Confidence-Enhanced Performance," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-023, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 May 2003. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Hvide, Hans K., 2002. "Pragmatic beliefs and overconfidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 15-28, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David Dickinson & Marie-Claire Villeval, 2007. "The Peter Principle: An Experiment," Post-Print halshs-00201225_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Albert Banal-Estañol & Jo Seldeslachts, 2005. "Merger Failures," CIG Working Papers SP II 2005-09, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG). [Downloadable!]
  3. Sabourian, Hamid & Sibert, Anne, 2009. "Banker Compensation and Confirmation Bias," CEPR Discussion Papers 7263, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Luís Santos-Pinto & Joel Sobel, 2005. "A Model of Positive Self-Image in Subjective Assessments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1386-1402, December. [Downloadable!]
  5. Santos-Pinto, Luís & Park, Young-Joon, 2004. "Forecasts of relative performance in tournaments: evidence from the field," MPRA Paper 3144, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Mar 2007. [Downloadable!]
  6. Arnoud W.A. Boot & Radhakrishnan Gopaian & Anjan V. Thakor, 2006. "Market Liquidity, Investor Participation and Managerial Autonomy: Why do Firms go Private?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-011/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Ian Ayres & Colin Rowat & Nasser Zakariya, 2007. "Optimal Two Stage Committee Voting Rules," Discussion Papers 04-23RR, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. repec:bep:capsoc:1:2007:1:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Juan D Carrillo & Isabelle Brocas, 2007. "Systematic errors in decision-making," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001473, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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