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Games with Incomplete Information Played by `Bayesian' Players, Part III. The Basic Probability Distribution of the Game

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  • John C. Harsanyi

    (University of California, Berkeley)

Abstract

Parts I and II of this paper have described a new theory for the analysis of games with incomplete information. Two cases have been distinguished: consistent games in which there exists some basic probability distribution from which the players' subjective probability distributions can be derived as conditional probability distributions; and inconsistent games in which no such basic probability distribution exists. Part III will now show that in consistent games, where a basic probability distribution exists, it is essentially unique. It will also be argued that, in the absence of special reasons to the contrary, one should try to analyze any given game situation with incomplete information in terms of a consistent-game model. However, it will be shown that our theory can be extended also to inconsistent games, in case the situation does require the use of an inconsistent-game model.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.14.7.486
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

Volume (Year): 14 (1968)
Issue (Month): 7 (March)
Pages: 486-502

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Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:14:y:1968:i:7:p:486-502

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Cited by:
  1. Sonja Brangewitz & Claus-Jochen Haake, 2013. "Cooperative Transfer Price Negotiations under Incomplete Information," Working Papers CIE 64, University of Paderborn, CIE Center for International Economics.
  2. Zonderland, Maartje E. & Timmer, Judith, 2012. "Optimal allocation of MRI scan capacity among competing hospital departments," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 219(3), pages 630-637.
  3. Mark A. Satterthwaite, 1979. "On the Scope of Stockholder Unanimity Theorems," Discussion Papers 368, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  4. Figuieres, Charles & Tidball, Mabel & Jean-Marie, Alain, 2004. "On the effects of conjectures in a symmetric strategic setting," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 75-102, March.
  5. Garrouste, Christelle & Loi, Massimo, 2009. "Applications De La Theorie Des Jeux A L'Education: Pour Quels Types Et Niveaux D'Education, Quels Modeles, Quels Resultats?
    [Applications of Game Theory in Education - What Types and At What Levels
    ," MPRA Paper 31825, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Laux, Volker & Stocken, Phillip C., 2012. "Managerial reporting, overoptimism, and litigation risk," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 577-591.
  7. Elselt, H. A., 1998. "Perception and information in a competitive location model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 94-105, July.
  8. Chwe, Michael Suk-Young, 1999. "The Reeded Edge and the Phillips Curve: Money Neutrality, Common Knowledge, and Subjective Beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 49-71, July.
  9. Di Maggio, Marco, 2009. "Sweet Talk: A Theory of Persuasion," MPRA Paper 18697, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Eric Van den Steen, 2004. "Rational Overoptimism (and Other Biases)," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1141-1151, September.
  11. Van den Steen, Eric, 2005. "Too Motivated?," Working papers 18180, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  12. repec:pdn:wpaper:64 is not listed on IDEAS

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