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Overconfident: Do You Put Your Money On It?

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Author Info
Erik Hoelzl
Aldo Rustichini
Abstract

A group exhibits overconfidence if significantly more than half the group members declare to be better than the median in some characteristic. Overconfidence was found in verbal reports for a variety of characteristics and settings but was less often studied for choice behaviour. In an experiment we tested how perceived relative skill influences verbal and choice behaviour. Treatments varied task difficulty and payment. Choice behaviour changes from overconfidence to underconfidence when the task changes from easy and familiar to non-familiar. This effect is significant when monetary payments are at stake and weak when they are not. Copyright 2005 Royal Economic Society.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2005.00990.x
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Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 115 (2005)
Issue (Month): 503 (04)
Pages: 305-318
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:115:y:2005:i:503:p:305-318

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  1. Jean Pierre Benoit & Juan Dubra, 2008. "Overconfidence?," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000002142, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Nicolas Jacquemet & Jean-Louis Rullière & Isabelle Vialle, 2008. "Monitoring optimistic agents," Post-Print halshs-00272928_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  3. David L. Dickinson & Robert J. Oxoby, 2007. "Cognitive Dissonance, Pessimism, and Behavioral Spillover Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 2832, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Philipp Köllinger & Maria Minniti & Christian Schade, 2005. ""I Think I Can, I Think I Can" : Overconfidence and Entrepreneurial Behavior," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 501, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Sandra Ludwig & Julia Nafziger, . "Do You Know That I Am Biased? An Experiment," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse11_2007, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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