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Overconfident: Do You Put Your Money On It?

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Author Info
Erik Hoelzl
Aldo Rustichini
Abstract

A group exhibits overconfidence if significantly more than half the group members declare to be better than the median in some characteristic. Overconfidence was found in verbal reports for a variety of characteristics and settings but was less often studied for choice behaviour. In an experiment we tested how perceived relative skill influences verbal and choice behaviour. Treatments varied task difficulty and payment. Choice behaviour changes from overconfidence to underconfidence when the task changes from easy and familiar to non-familiar. This effect is significant when monetary payments are at stake and weak when they are not. Copyright 2005 Royal Economic Society.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2005.00990.x
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Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 115 (2005)
Issue (Month): 503 (04)
Pages: 305-318
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:115:y:2005:i:503:p:305-318

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  1. Benoît, Jean-Pierre & Dubra, Juan & Moore, Don, 2008. "A proper test of overconfidence," MPRA Paper 11954, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. David L. Dickinson & Robert J. Oxoby, 2007. "Cognitive Dissonance, Pessimism, and Behavioral Spillover Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 2832, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  3. Philipp Köllinger & Maria Minniti & Christian Schade, 2005. ""I Think I Can, I Think I Can": Overconfidence and Entrepreneurial Behavior," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 501, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Sandra Ludwig & Julia Nafziger, 2007. "Do You Know That I Am Biased? An Experiment," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse11_2007, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Benoît, Jean-Pierre & Dubra, Juan, 2007. "Overconfidence?," MPRA Paper 5505, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Robin Hogarth & Natalia Karelaia, 2008. "Entrepreneurial Success and Failure: Confidence and Fallible Judgement," Economics Working Papers 1130, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
  7. David Dickinson, 2009. "The Effects of Beliefs Versus Risk Attitude on Bargaining Outcomes," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 69-101, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Nicolas Jacquemet & Jean-Louis Rullière & Isabelle Vialle, 2008. "Monitoring optimistic agents," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00272928_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Pavlo Blavatskyy, 2009. "Betting on own knowledge: Experimental test of overconfidence," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 39-49, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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