On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs
AbstractThis paper explains why seemingly irrational overconfident behavior can persist. Information aggregation is poor in groups in which most individuals herd. By ignoring the herd, the actions of overconfident individuals (â€œentrepreneursâ€) convey their private information. However, entrepreneurs make mistakes and thus die more frequently. The socially optimal proportion of entrepreneurs trades off the positive information externality against high attrition rates of entrepreneurs, and depends on the size of the group, on the degree of overconfidence, and on the accuracy of individualsâ€™ private information. The stationary distribution trades off the fitness of the group against the fitness of overconfident individuals.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA in its series University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management with number qt6668s4pz.
Date of creation: 01 Jan 1997
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2001. "On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 301-330, 09.
- Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2001. "On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1307, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Antonio Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2001. "On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm211, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Nov 2003.
- D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
- L2 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
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