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Information Aggregation with Random Ordering: Cascades and Overconfidence

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Author Info
Markus Noth (University of Mannheim)
Martin Weber (University of Mannheim)
Abstract

In economic models, it is usually assumed that agents aggregate their private information with all available public information correctly and completely. In this experiment, we identify subjects" updating procedures and analyse the consequences for the aggregation process. Decisions can be based on private information with known quality and on the observed decisions of other participants. In this setting with random ordering, information cascades are observable and agents" overconfidence has a positive effect on avoiding a non--revealing aggregation process. However, overconfidence reduces welfare in general. Copyright Royal Economic Society 2003.

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Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 113 (2003)
Issue (Month): 484 (January)
Pages: 166-189
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:113:y:2003:i:484:p:166-189

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1998. "Learning from the Behavior of Others: Conformity, Fads, and Informational Cascades," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 151-70, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2001. "On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1307, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Welch, Ivo, 1992. " Sequential Sales, Learning, and Cascades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 695-732, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Anderson, Lisa R & Holt, Charles A, 1997. "Information Cascades in the Laboratory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 847-62, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
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  6. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Avery, Christopher & Zemsky, Peter, 1998. "Multidimensional Uncertainty and Herd Behavior in Financial Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 724-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Camerer, Colin, 1989. " Bubbles and Fads in Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 3-41.
  10. Banerjee, Abhijit V, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Colin Camerer & Dan Lovallo, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990. "Herd Behavior and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-79, June.
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  14. Jianbo Zhang, 1997. "Strategic Delay and the Onset of Investment Cascades," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 28(1), pages 188-205, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Camerer, Colin & Weigelt, Keith, 1991. "Information Mirages in Experimental Asset Markets," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(4), pages 463-93, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Shunichiro Sasaki, 2005. "Signal Qualities, Order of Decisions, and Informational Cascades: Experimental Evidence," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(34), pages 1-11. [Downloadable!]
  2. Strassmair, Christina, 2009. "Can intentions spoil the kindness of a gift? - An experimental study," Discussion Papers in Economics 10351, University of Munich, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jacob K. Goeree & Thomas R. Palfrey & Brian W. Rogers & Richard D. McKelvey, 2006. "Self-Correcting Information Cascades," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000211, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Weizsäcker, Georg, 2008. "Do We Follow Others When We Should? A Simple Test of Rational Expectations," IZA Discussion Papers 3616, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  5. Randall Morck, 2008. "Behavioral finance in corporate governance: economics and ethics of the devil’s advocate," Journal of Management and Governance, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 179-200, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Shachar Kariv, 2005. "Overconfidence and Informational Cascades," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000406, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jonathan E. Alevy & Michael S. Haigh & John List, 2006. "Information Cascades: Evidence from An Experiment with Financial Market Professionals," NBER Working Papers 12767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Benoît, Jean-Pierre & Dubra, Juan, 2008. "Overconfidence?," MPRA Paper 765, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Shunichiro Sasaki & Toshiji Kawagoe, 2007. "Belief Updating in Individual and Social Learning: A Field Experiment on the Internet," ISER Discussion Paper 0690, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University. [Downloadable!]
  10. Mathias Drehmann & Jörg Oechssler & Andreas Roider, 2004. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets - An Internet Experiment," Discussion Papers 7, SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Roe, Brian & Teisl, Mario, 2004. "Consumption Externalities, Information Policies, And Multiple Equilibria: Evidence For Genetically Engineered Food Markets," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20243, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  12. Alessandro Innocenti & Alessandra Rufa & Jacopo Semmoloni, 2008. "Cognitive Biases and Gaze Direction: An Experimental Study," Labsi Experimental Economics Laboratory University of Siena 022, University of Siena. [Downloadable!]
  13. Randall Morck, 2009. "Generalized Agency Problems," NBER Working Papers 15051, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Morone, Andrea & Fiore, Annamaria & Sandri, Serena, 2008. "On The Absorbability Of Herd Behaviour And Informational Cascades: An Experimental Analysis," MPRA Paper 6884, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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