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Overconfidence in Psychology and Finance – an Interdisciplinary Literature Review

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  • Skala, Dorota

Abstract

This paper reviews the literature on one of the most meaningful concepts in modern behavioural finance, the overconfidence phenomenon. Overconfidence is presented as a well-developed psychological theory, with main facets comprising miscalibration, betterthan- average effect, illusion of control and unrealistic optimism. The primary applications of overconfidence in contemporary finance are analysed, from the perspective of financial markets and corporate behaviour. Experimental studies, formal models and analyses of market data demonstrate that overconfidence at least partially solves some financial market puzzles that cannot be accounted for by standard economic theory. Overconfidence in the corporate context may affect not only a company’s internal financing structure, but also its interactions with other market participants through merger and acquisition activity.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 26386.

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Date of creation: Apr 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:26386

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Keywords: overconfidence; behavioral finance; investor psychology; financial markets; corporate policies; overconfident investors;

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References

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  1. Biais, Bruno & Hilton, Denis & Mazurier, Karine & Pouget, Sébastien, 2004. "Judgmental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market," IDEI Working Papers, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse 259, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  2. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann,, . "The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department _123, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
  3. Simon Gervais & Terrance Odean, . "Learning To Be Overconfident," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research 05-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  6. Hirshleifer, David & Luo, Guo Ying, 2000. "On the Survival of Overconfident Traders in a Competitive Securities Market," MPRA Paper 15347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August.
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  15. Brenner, Lyle A. & Koehler, Derek J. & Liberman, Varda & Tversky, Amos, 1996. "Overconfidence in Probability and Frequency Judgments: A Critical Examination," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 212-219, March.
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  18. J B Heaton, 2002. "Managerial Optimism and Corporate Finance," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, Financial Management Association, vol. 31(2), Summer.
  19. Soll, Jack B., 1996. "Determinants of Overconfidence and Miscalibration: The Roles of Random Error and Ecological Structure," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 117-137, February.
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  23. Juslin, Peter, 1994. "The Overconfidence Phenomenon as a Consequence of Informal Experimenter-Guided Selection of Almanac Items," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 226-246, February.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Heller, Yuval, 2010. "Overconfidence and risk dispersion," MPRA Paper 25893, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona & Nistor, Costel, 2012. "Overreaction and underreaction on the BUCHAREST STOCK EXCHANGE," MPRA Paper 41555, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Sep 2012.
  3. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan & Nistor, Costel, 2012. "Reactions of the capital markets to the shocks before and during the global crisis," MPRA Paper 41540, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jan 2012.

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